The American People Aren't Buying Trump's BS

Plus, a reminder to never tweet and a deep dive into what I'm watching these days -- Steven Soderbergh's filmography

Before getting into the day's news, I wanted to pass along a note I received this week from Ellie, a new paid subscriber.

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My schedule today was too busy to do a Zoom chat, but I’ll try to do one on Monday or Tuesday … I’ll keep you posted.

Over at MSNBC, I have a new piece on Mike Waltz’s dismissal as national security advisor. While the conventional wisdom is that Waltz was pushed out because of his epic Signal Group chat screw up, the truth is a bit more complicated.

Waltz’s problem was that in an administration of know-nothing America firsters, solicitous Trump sycophants, and national security novices, Waltz knew a bit too much and drank too little of the MAGA Kool-Aid.

… His calls for a tougher stance on Russia, as well as his general bellicosity towards Iran and China, almost certainly contributed to his political downfall. If not for Signal or even his hiring decisions, Waltz’s lack of fealty to Trump’s America First agenda meant that his tenure in the White House was likely always going to be short.

The fact that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is replacing Waltz is truly fantastic political symbolism.

In the not-too-distant past, Rubio was as much a foreign policy hawk as Waltz. He, too, once talked tough on Russian aggression against Ukraine, supported U.S. foreign aid, and at one point in his Senate career even tried to broker a compromise immigration bill. Now he says the conflict in Ukraine is “not our war,” played a key role in demolishing the U.S. Agency for International Development, and has zealously defended Trump’s illegal deportation policy.

The symbolism of Rubio taking Waltz’s job is almost too on the nose – even for this administration. It’s not merely an indication that MAGA world will flush out the unrepentant hawks who once dominated Republican foreign policy … It’s also a reminder that the key to staying in Trump’s good graces is to simply parrot – and help implement – whatever insane policy idea pops into the president’s head.

You can read the whole thing here.

Never Tweet

The president of the United States is having a morning.

Here’s a fun fact: the average gasoline price in America is $3.18 a gallon, down from $3.67 one year ago but still not $1.98 a gallon. Trump is only off here by 60 percent! Gas prices have slightly increased since Trump took office. So too the cost of groceries and, in particular, the price of eggs.

Along similar lines, the current administration line on the economy is that its underperformance is all Joe Biden’s fault (which, it should be noted, kind of contradicts Trump’s above claim of good economic news). I don’t know who the White House thinks it’s fooling with this bullshit. A YouGov poll from April showed that 54 percent of Americans believe that Trump’s policies are to blame for the current state of the economy, versus 21 percent who blame Biden.

A more recent YouGov poll shows a significant shift in how Americans view their future economic prospects.

What about consumer confidence …

According to a monthly survey by the Consumer Board, the current measure of consumer expectations is 54.4 — the lowest number since October 2011. (Keep in mind that anything below 80 generally signals that a recession is ahead.) And when Americans were asked what is driving down their economic expectations, the Conference Board says, "tariffs are now on top of consumers' minds … Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy." These responses are consistent with a recent University of Michigan report showing that consumer sentiment is at its second-lowest point since 1952.

The White House will keep trying to spin this, but the reality is fairly straightforward: Americans are desperately worried about the state of the economy and overwhelmingly blame Trump (they should blame Trump because, quite clearly, the economic downturn is his direct fault). This is not a fight that the White House will win, and the worst effects of Trump’s tariff war have not even kicked in, but they will soon.

An April report released by Apollo Global Management lays out a timeline explaining when consumers could begin to feel the tariffs' effects. The report estimates it takes 20 to 40 days for a containership to reach U.S. ports and one to 10 days for goods to travel to cities. It predicts by the middle of May, containerships to U.S. ports will come to a stop and by late May, consumers will start to see “empty shelves.”

So, even if Trump reverses course today, the economic pain of his trade war is baked in, which means his numbers may get even worse in May and June.

We’re entering the Fuck Around, Find Out moment of Trump’s presidency and it ain’t gonna be pretty.

I Rest My Case

If I were Harvard’s lawyers, I’d put this tweet on a large placard, bring it to Court, and rest my case (granted, I never went to law school, but I have watched many episodes of Law & Order).

Seriously, though, Harvard trying to prove that the federal government is revoking its tax-exempt status out of pure presidential animus feels like it won’t be a heavy lift.

World War Revisionism

Even for Trump, this is truly bonkers.

America won World War I, and “nobody was close to us in terms of strength, bravery, or military brilliance” is QUITE a take. I’d imagine folks in the UK and France won’t take this comment too kindly. As for the idea that we did more than any other country in producing a victorious result on World War II, I suspect that 20 million dead Soviets would like a word. Anyway, file this Trump lunacy in the “Category of Things That Will. Never Happen But Trump’s Enablers Will Still Defend.”

Along these lines, the Associated Press broke a bombshell story last night:

Detailed Army plans for a potential military parade on President Donald Trump’s birthday in June call for more than 6,600 soldiers, at least 150 vehicles, 50 helicopters, seven bands and possibly a couple thousand civilians, The Associated Press has learned.

The planning documents, obtained by the AP, are dated April 29 and 30 and have not been publicly released. They represent the Army’s most recent blueprint for its long-planned 250th anniversary festival on the National Mall and the newly added element — a large military parade that Trump has long wanted but is still being discussed.

The Army anniversary just happens to coincide with Trump’s 79th birthday on June 14.

Having a military parade to celebrate the birthday of the president is some major un-American bullshit.

Film Interlude

Universal Pictures

As I have previously mentioned, I tend to develop weird movie obsessions. Lately, I’ve been watching (and rewatching) every Steven Soderbergh movie—and boy, is it fun! Soderbergh is one of America’s greatest film directors. I’ve watched a little over half his oeuvre so far, and here are a few of my favorites and unfavorites so far. (I haven’t rewatched everything yet, so this is a very incomplete list.)

The Worst

“The Laundromat” — I haven’t watched the Soderbergh films that are generally considered his worst (“Schizopolis,” “Bubble” and “Kafka”), and nothing I’ve seen has been truly terrible, but “The Laundromat” was not great (even though there are things about it that I liked). It’s an ambitious effort to explain the corruption around the 2009 economic crisis and the release of the “Panama Papers,” and parts of it work well. But for a director who is usually quite economical in his filmmaking (he generally doesn’t make long movies), this one drags in the second half … and the ending is preachy and dreadful. It was not a complete zero, but it was not great either.

Mid

“Magic Mike” — People really love this movie, but I wasn’t overly impressed. I mean, it’s entertaining and Channing Tatum is great, but I can’t say it did a lot for me. Having said that, it’s a good example of Soderbergh’s strength as a director. Even with fluffy subject matter and a fairly paint-by-numbers script, Soderbergh can produce something compelling. And he can certainly film a dance scene.

“Side Effects,” “Unsane” and “Kimi” — I liked but didn’t love any of these films (the former is better than the letter) but one thing each had in common — which I’ve noticed about many of Soderbergh films — is they are defined by fantastic female acting performance. Mara Rooney in “Side Effects,” Claire Foy in “Unsane,” and Zoe Kravitz in “Kimi” are each the best part of these three films, and these are three very different performances. In one the the woman is a victim (but also a bad ass), the second is a victim by circumstance (also a bad ass) another, she’s kind of evil, but each brings depth and complexity to their portrayals. Rewatching “Traffic,” I forgot how good Catherine Zeta Jones is in that film, and, of course, Julia Roberts famously won an Oscar for her performance in “Erin Brockovich.” Then there’s “Haywire,” which starred MMA fighter Gina Carano as the lead in a bloody John Wick-style action thriller. Soderbergh makes a lot of bro movies — the Ocean’s Eleven franchise, “Lucky Logan,” “Magic Mike,” but he’s surprisingly effective at getting great, career-defining performances out of female actresses.

The Best

“Solaris” — I haven’t seen the original, and it’s on my list, but I loved this remake. It’s possibly the most emotionally rich Soderbergh film I’ve watched so far, with a particularly vulnerable performance from George Clooney and a beautiful one from Natascha McElhone (in yet another outstanding female performance). “Solaris” is a thoughtful and complex movie about grief and longing and how people pick up the pieces from loss (or don’t). It leaves you with far more questions than answers at the end, which is always the sign of a great movie. That it came a year after 9/11 is, I believe, not accidental. It’s arguably one of the better post-9/11 movies (the best is Munich, but that’s a conversation for another day).

“Lucky Logan” — Soderbergh loves making caper movies and is such a pro at them. Ocean’s 11 is the best one of the genre that he’s done, but this is a close second. The thing about Soderbergh — and this can also be said about the Ocean’s 11 franchise, “Black Bag,” “One Sudden Move,” and the “Limey” — is that the guy is a brilliant craftsman. His movies are never dull and always entertaining. The pacing is always top-notch, and even when the plots are full of holes, it doesn’t dramatically distract the viewer. Every element of his movies seems to work — the editing, cinematography, music, etc.

“Black Bag,” “One Sudden Move,” and the “Limey” — All of these are great, but “Limey” stands out, in part, because of the movie’s unique narrative structure (flashbacks interspliced with present-day moments) and Terence Stamp’s electric performance. Like several of Soderbergh’s better movies, the film's substance is an afterthought to the style, but that’s fine. So much of what makes his films great is how he creates a feel and a palpable vibe. All three of these films do it so well.

“Out of Sight” — This is the movie where Soderbergh’s talents mesh in the singularly most effective way. Lopez and Clooney have electric chemistry, the pacing is excellent, Soderbergh’s direction is creative and dynamic, and the music/score is fantastic. It’s practically a performance in itself, and nowhere is it more effective than in this scene. Soderbergh has made a lot of great movies. “Out of Sight” is his best one.