I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
If money is tight or you’re already up to eyeballs in subscriptions, here’s another idea — share this article. Email it to a friend (or even an enemy). Post it on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. Text or email it to your wife, husband, mother, father, brother, sister, or even your creepy second cousin who lives in Fulton County. Word of mouth is often the best way to build support for a creative endeavor, so if everyone here sends it to just one person … it would be much appreciated!
Earlier this week, I wrote a long post arguing that the downside risks of dumping Joe Biden from the presidential ticket were too great and that the Democratic Party should ride with their flawed incumbent.
I also said that this is no time for sentimentality and that the only consideration for Democrats is beating Donald Trump. If that means dropping Biden from the ticket for the good of the party and the country, then so be it.
It seems increasingly clear that we are nearing that point (if we haven’t already surpassed it).
Biden Is Losing The Party
Admittedly, I’m surprised that my views on this issue have evolved so dramatically. But there’s no denying that Biden’s lousy debate performance opened up the floodgates of Democratic fears about having an 81-year-old standard bearer as the only bulwark against another Trump term in office.
The initial panic over Biden’s halting, confused debate performance has escalated exponentially over the past ten days. Rather than reassuring Democrats, the White House’s efforts at damage control have arguably made the situation worse. And Biden’s Friday interview with ABC’s George Stephanopolous did little to quell the intra-party uproar.
It’s not clear, however, that there’s anything Biden could have done — or still can do — to calm Democratic fears. A broad swath of the party — particularly party leaders, elected officials, and donors — appears steadfastly convinced that Biden is no longer up for the job and simply must go. Several prominent Democratic lawmakers have already gone public urging Biden to stop down … and I suspect things will only get worse this week with members of Congress returning to Washington and Democrats running out of time to make a change atop the ticket. When a president has lost the confidence of a healthy segment of his party — and that seems to be the case now — it’s hard to see how he survives.
For Democrats, the issue is not just Biden’s age; the White House has lost credibility with Democrats. There’s an increasing sense that Biden’s team has a) been less than honest about the president’s mental acuity and b) doesn’t have a clear plan for righting the ship.
Welcome To The Feeding Frenzy
But the even bigger problem for Biden and Democrats is that the president’s age and alleged infirmities have created a media feeding frenzy that is eerily reminiscent of the Hillary Clinton email story. Biden’s age is now the dominant framework for how political journalists view — and are reporting on — the president.
Case in point, look at this ridiculous scoop by Axios’s Alex Thompson.
For his events, President Biden's staffers prepare a short document with large print and photos that include his precise path to a podium, according to an event template the White House sends to staffers.
Why it matters: Since the June 27 debate, some Democrats who've attended and helped set up Biden events have wondered whether his team's focus on minute details were to obscure the 81-year-old president's limitations — rather than just a reflection of a meticulous staff.
"I staffed a simple fundraiser at a private residence, but they treated it like it was a NATO summit with his movements," according to a person who staffed a Biden event in the past 18 months.
I cannot emphasize enough how standard this kind of detailed advance work is. In fact, the Axios article makes that exact point.
Other prominent principals in the Biden administration use similar methods for plotting his movements, sources told Axios.
So why run the story? Because it furthers the narrative that has developed over the past ten days about Biden being so aged and infirm that his staff must cover for his frequent “senior moments.”
Democrats have good reason to fear that everything Biden does between now and November will be viewed through the prism of his debate performance and his advanced age. Is that fair? No, Is it good journalism? Definitely not. Will it be more difficult for Democrats to make the 2024 election a referendum about Donald Trump? Probably.
The media’s increased obsession with Biden’s age — and the inability of Democrats to shut their mouths and get behind their nominee — risks becoming a debilitating distraction that takes attention away from Trump.
Since the the only consideration for Democrats, this election, is beating Trump it seems increasingly clear that the best opition for the party is if Biden withdraws from the race and hands the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris. Don’t get me wrong: the risks of replacing Biden are significant, but at the same time the case for keeping him on the ticket are just as great (if not greater).
I noted last week that one of the biggest challenges in swapping Biden for Harris is that until the DNC in August media attention will be completely focused on the Democrats and Harris rather than Trump (if Biden drops out there’s no presidential option for Democrats other than the VP and I won’t waste your time making that argument again). But if Biden stays the media focus will be on him — and his liabilities.
But here’s where Democrats can potentially turn the tables. Yes, Harris ascending to the top of the ticket will become THE media story for the next several weeks — but what if that story is one that Democrats want to promote?
What if Democrats have a compelling presidential ticket never before seen in American politics? What if Harris names Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as her running mate, creating the first all-female ticket in American political history?
XXXX Hits The Spot
A Harris-Whitmer ticket would be deeply counter-intuitive — it’s both leaning into a liability (two women on a ticket in a country that just 8 years ago rejected a female candidate for president) and a strength (women vote more Demcocratic than men).
The antecedent for such a move is Bill Clinton’s decision in 1992 to pick Al Gore, a fellow Baby Boomer from the South, as his running mate. Did choosing Gore win the race for Clinton? No. Vice presidential picks are pretty much never decisive. But by selecting Gore as his running mate Clinton was leaning into his campaign’s “change” message and creating a clear contrast with his opponent George H.W. Bush (of the Greatest Generation).
Picking Whitmer as her running mate would allow Harris to do something similar.
It would, in effect, be leaning into the Democrats’s advantage with female voters and would, ironically, offer a generational contrast with Trump. Running with Whitmer would flip the script for Democrats and in an election year in which abortion and women’s rights will be front and center serve as an excellent piece of campaign branding.
Moreover, it’s hard to imagine selection that would do more to energize Democratic voters. A running mate like PA Governor, Josh Shapiro would be an equally excellent choice for Harris because it creates a similar generational contrast and would give a slight boost for Democrats in winning Pennsylvania. But picking Whitmer is the kind of decision that would both motivate Democratic women and, potentially, even help Democrats among young voters, who could look to the Democratic ticket as a harbinger of cultural and social change (particularly in contrast to Trump). Also, picking Whitmer would increase Democratic chances of winning Michigan — and considering that Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are essential to Democrats getting to 270 electoral votes that is no small consideration.
Critics will likely argue that two women on a presidential ticket will create a backlash from men. While that’s quite possible, I suspect that the type of men who would refuse to vote for a ticket with two women on it … would likely refuse to vote for a ticket with one woman on it. Moreover, the presence of two female national candidates will almost certainly bait Trump and his fellow Republicans into making the worst sort of misogynistic comments — and would serve as yet another tool for motivating women voters.
The other argument against a Harris-Whitmer ticket is that in 2016 voters rejected a highly qualified female candidate for a narcissistic lunatic. But that ignores what’s happened in the eight years since. One of the most profound effects of Clinton’s lose to Trump in 2016 was the shift in female voting patterns and the move of college-educated women to the Democratic Party. Picking two women for the Democratic ticket could, theoretically, give a boost to that emerging political realignment.
Still A Risk
To be clear, I don’t have data to support this argument and there’s lot of ways that swapping Biden for Harris could go wrong. The risks of switching horses in mid-stream is significant and it’s not necessarily clear that Harris has the political chops to win a presidential campaign. Moreover, I’m not convinced that Harris would be as strong a foreign policy president as Biden (and foreign policy acumen is usually the most important criteria that separates good presidents from bad ones). I’m also far from convinced that Biden still can’t win the presidential race.
But, the last week has provided compelling evidence that Biden has lost his party and lost the narrative about the 2024 election. His struggles risk becoming the focus of voter and media attention for the next four months — and if that happens it’s a recipe for Trump serving another term as president.
And, quite simply, that’s a risk that none of us should be prepared to take.
I take no pleasure in finding myself in a place where I think replacing Biden (maybe the best American president of my lifetime) is the best path forward for Democrats. But here we are.
Musical Interlude
Does Michael Cohen read these comments?
Two women would be catnip to a media that loves to destroy women.