The DeSantis Dilemma

What's with all these balloons getting shot down? And a hip-hop pioneer passes away.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to subscribe, you can sign up here.

He’s No Scott Walker

There is a whole mess of interesting stories about Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and his presidential aspirations this week. I’m going to start today with Nate Cohn’s piece in the New York Times — and why comparisons between Ron DeSantis and failed 2016 presidential contender, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, are inapt.

In this narrow but important respect, Mr. DeSantis has a lot more in common with Barack Obama or Ronald Reagan than Mr. Walker or the other promising first-time candidates who did not live up to high hopes in recent years, like Kamala Harris, Rick Perry or the retired general Wesley Clark.

Overall, Mr. DeSantis has 32 percent support in polls taken since the midterm elections. This is not a fleeting product of a wave of favorable media coverage. Instead, he has made steady gains in the polls over the last two years. Mr. Walker, in contrast, had 7 percent in the early polls.

Looking back, it’s striking how rare it is for a modern first-time candidate to hold this level of support. Since 1976, only six candidates who hadn’t previously run yearlong campaigns for president or vice president have managed to consistently attract more than half of Mr. DeSantis’s support in the early polls: Mr. Obama, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 cycle; George W. Bush in 2000; Ted Kennedy in 1980; and Mr. Reagan in 1976. (Mr. Reagan’s pre-modern late 1968 bid is not counted in this analysis.)

I’m a bit surprised that Nate doesn’t point out that four of these six candidates lost their bids for their party nod in these cycles (Reagan and Clinton went on to be presidential nominees later). It’s true that DeSantis’s numbers are impressive and, unlike Guiliani in 2008 (whose strong numbers were likely a by-product of name recognition), have a much stronger foundation. But while the DeSantis/Walker comparisons are inexact, I’m not sure it tells us much about his support within the Republican Party or his chances of winning the nomination. DeSantis would certainly not be the first presidential aspirant to enter a race with many advantages … and then fail to deliver.

However, Nate is right that the political burden on DeSantis will “be quite a bit less than it was for Walker.” And that gives him a major advantage over almost every Republican in the race other than Trump. But there is one important difference between him and the former Wisconsin Governor. As the most likely alternative to Trump, DeSantis is in the crosshairs of his GOP rivals.

“Ron Meatball”

That brings me to the first major shots fired in the fight between Trump and DeSantis. On Truth Social, the former president circulated a picture of DeSantis in his early 20s when he worked as a high school teacher hamming it up with several high underage girls at a party. If the message was difficult to discern, Trump helpfully clarified, “Here is Ron DeSanctimonious grooming high school girls with alcohol as a teacher.” This is gross, but for Trump, par for the course.

Yet, when asked about it at a local event in Florida, DeSantis offered a surprisingly muted response “I spend my time delivering results for the people of Florida and fighting against Joe Biden,” he said. “That’s how I spend my time. I don’t spend my time trying to smear other Republicans.”

This is like waving a red flag in front of the former president. In trying to stay above the fray, DeSantis comes across as weak and unwilling to stand up to Trump’s bullying. It will likely encourage him to go harder at DeSantis, convinced that he doesn’t have the (forgive my French) stones to fight back. Trump is a bully who feeds off the perceived weakness of his opponents, and DeSantis has fed that perception. One big question about DeSantis was, “can he take a punch?” This response does not inspire confidence.

According to the New York Times, Trump is already workshopping how he will go after DeSantis.

He has insulted Mr. DeSantis in casual conversations, describing him as “Meatball Ron,” an apparent dig at his appearance, or “Shutdown Ron,” a reference to restrictions the governor put in place at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Meatball Ron” is so absurdly childish and mean-spirited that I have no doubt it will resonate among Republican primary voters.

There’s a good reason why DeSantis is fearful of tangling with Trump: aside from being the target of juvenile name-calling, he knows that doing so risks losing the support of the former president’s rabid supporters. Also, as soon as he hits Trump, it will feed the animosity between the two men and almost certainly lead Trump to ramp up his attacks. No Republican presidential candidate has let loose on Trump and survived — and surely DeSantis doesn’t want to start his run for the White House by mixing it with a guy who still has solid backing within the party. At the same time, doing and saying nothing while the former president turns him into a punching bag will make DeSantis look weak — and in a political party where outward displays of resolve and strength are considered essential, that could prove fatal.

There’s yet another problem for DeSantis. DeSantis is unlikely to make a presidential announcement before the Florida legislature finishes its session in May. DeSantis is, in effect, acting like a frontrunner, banking on his name recognition and deep pockets, while other candidates are hitting the hustings for months, talking up voters, and — in the case of Trump — seeking to create a negative narrative around him. From afar, it looks a bit arrogant and even a bit lazy. Moreover, it seems like a very dangerous strategy, especially when a guy with as big a megaphone as Trump will be going after him regularly. I’m honestly not sure DeSantis can get away with waiting so long to throw his hat in the ring.

DeSantis can argue that he needs to stay in Tallahassee because of his responsibilities as governor, but will GOP voters really care about his day job? Governing is not exactly the most vaunted attribute in the modern Republican Party. To be clear, there is every reason to believe that DeSantis will be a formidable presidential candidate. He has a lot of support within the party. He’s raised a ton of money, and he’s not Donald Trump, which, for many Republicans, is reason enough to support him. But the GOP nomination will not be handed to him on a platter — and so far, he’s acting a bit like he thinks it will be.

In Other DeSantis News …