I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to subscribe, you can sign up here.
McCarthy Agonistes
Three times yesterday, the House of Representatives voted for the next Speaker of the House, and three times, Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries won more votes than the Republican candidate Kevin McCarthy. Jeffries performance was not enough to make him Speaker since he did not receive a majority of those voting in the House. Still, it is nonetheless impressive, seeing as there are more Republicans than Democrats in the 118th Congress.
McCarthy was defiant in defeat, telling reporters, “I’m staying until we win. I know the path.”
It seems he’s the only one.
It didn't seem possible that the House Speaker situation would be more confusing at the end of the day than it was at the beginning … but here we are. McCarthy lost 19 Republicans on the first ballot, 19 on the second, and 20 on the third. The anti-McCarthy rebels called his bluff, and when the embattled GOP leader asked for an adjournment after the last vote, it was obvious that they had bested him — and we are no closer to a functioning House of Representatives.
So how does this get resolved? Honestly, I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. Today the House will reconvene at noon, and my best guess is they will go through the same process again with the rebels holding firm, perhaps even picking up votes. McCarthy could get pushed aside, but for who? The anti-McCarthy bloc nominated Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan and gave him 19, then 20 votes — and this happened right after Jordan nominated McCarthy on the second ballot. But it’s hard to imagine that Jordan has enough support within the party or that he would even want the job.
McCarthy’s number two, Steve Scalise, could be an alternative, but will the GOP extremists really want to turn to a member of the House leadership — and will less conservative Republicans from places like New York, New Jersey, and California want to back a Speaker who dubbed himself “David Duke without the baggage”? Scalise is probably the most logical alternative to McCarthy, but he brings with him his own share of problems.
Maybe there’s an unobjectionable backbencher or retired Republican, like former Michigan Rep. Fred Upton, who can garner the support of the entire GOP conference but by now, one might have expected such a name to emerge. Indeed, what is so striking about the anti-McCarthy contingent is that they have no Plan B, no viable alternative for Speaker, and and no clear strategy. They know what they are against, but they are '“for” nothing. Actually, I take that back — they do appear to be “for” one thing: kicking McCarthy in the teeth and denying him the speakership at all costs. At this point, it’s pure political nihilism.
But it's led to a situation in which it’s hard to see how McCarthy wins the speakership ... but it's equally difficult to see how someone else wins the job.
So here are a few possible ways this situation could get resolved.
McCarthy plays hardball and calls for the next Speaker to be decided by a plurality of members. That means that Jeffries could win the job with less than a majority. Would such a threat convince the insurgents that they must vote for McCarthy to block Jeffries? Perhaps, but honestly, I’m not convinced that at least some of them wouldn’t prefer the Democrat to win. Being in the opposition is all they know how to do: what difference does it make if it’s McCarthy or Jeffries? And, as I noted above, they seem dead set on denying McCarthy the Speaker’s gavel. To be honest, I don’t have the sense that any pressure tactic would work against them.
The second possibility (and it’s a remote one) is that this goes on for a while — days, even weeks — and Democrats eventually decide to vote present to give McCarthy the speakership and end the drama (that way, McCarthy will have a majority of voting members). Why would they do this? First, it might be the only way to end this charade. Second, as far-fetched as it might currently seem, America needs a functioning House of Representatives. Lastly, there would be no better way to completely emasculate McCarthy than for him to win the speakership because of Democratic votes. This is a real long-shot because Democrats have no real political incentive to help McCarthy. Still maybe at some point they’ll want this drama to end and ultimately the Democrats might be the only ones who can do it.
But for this to happen it also means the majority of Republicans will be willing to stick it out with McCarthy and I’m not sure that happens. At some point, the writing will be on the wall and Republicans will need to move on from McCarthy. We’re not there yet — and it might not come for a few more days — but the longer this goes on the more likely it happens.
The problem, of course, is that there is no obvious alternative to McCarthy. But of all the potential scenarios, Republicans abandoning McCarthy is the one seems the most plausible — except for the inconvenient part where we don’t know the identity of this dark horse candidate. In short, we’re all flying blind here.
One thing, however, is certain, whether he wins or loses Kevin McCarthy is done. If he prevails he will lead a caucus that doesn’t respect or fear him — and almost certainly won’t follow his lead in the House. If he loses, my guess is that he’ll resign his seat. From the penthouse to the outhouse looks all too clearly like McCarthy’s professional trajectory. Same goes for the newly-minted majority House Republican caucus.
What’s Going On
Smart piece by Paul Kane on McCarthy’s mile wide, inch deep support within the GOP caucus.
George Santos had a super uncomfortable day.
The condition of Bill safety Damar Hamlin is improving … though he’s not out of the woods yet.
Today In Bob Dylan
Arguably Bob Dylan’s meanest song about his break up with girlfriend Suze Rotole (and it’s a healthy competition considering he also wrote “Positively 4th Street,” “Ballad of a Thin Man,” and “Like A Rolling Stone.”)
Is this the least the Republicans can do? At best a 7th round speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives!
George Santos making stuff up again https! https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1610469744850898946?s=20&t=X1zjTI0bRK3zYn7HUMCitA