The Era of Stupid - Manchema Version
Led by the narcissistic Bobbsey-twins, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, Democrats are committing political hari-kari and for the dumbest of reasons.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were forwarded this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
For tomorrow’s Zoom cast, I’ll be joined by my old friend Jeremy Rosner as we talk politics, polls, and the bizarre self-inflicted wound that President Biden’s legislative agenda has become. As usual, the chat will be at 12:30 PM and will be open to all, but I will only make the video accessible to paid subscribers. The link will be sent around tomorrow morning.
Political Hari-Kari
What’s happening right now among Democrats in Congress is one of the stupidest political acts I’ve ever seen.
Democrats should quickly pass the Senate’s bipartisan infrastructure bill and agree on an undeniably popular budget package that will provide enormous benefits to the American people and be politically beneficial to the party in the 2022 midterm elections. Instead, because of Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, two obstinate, narcissistic senators, the Democratic Party appears to be in near-disarray — and the party’s legislative agenda is hanging by a thread. This is happening even though Democrats are remarkably united around their policy goals, contrary to the image they are presenting to the country.
Honestly, stupid doesn’t even do it justice.
Any Day Now
For months I’ve expressed confidence that Congress would pass a major infrastructure bill and a budget package chockful of progressive agenda items. What I hadn’t fully grappled with was that Manchin and Sinema would be more interested in flattering their vanity than doing what’s best for the party they represent or the country as a whole.
House progressives have been saying for weeks now that they won’t support Manchin and Sinema’s cherished bipartisan infrastructure bill unless they receive a clear signal from the two senators they will support their cherished budget package. Manchin and Sinema have consistently refused to meet them midway. House progressives said, “give us a topline number” that you’re willing to agree to so we can negotiate. Again, the two senators held their tongues. Finally, today Manchin floated a $1.5 trillion figure — $2 billion below the current benchmark of $3.5 trillion. It’s an insulting offer, presented at the last minute, and intended to strong-arm progressives. Voting for it would mean surrendering the left’s leverage and giving up the best shot Democrats have to enact a host of progressive agenda items that the country desperately needs - and which the party strongly supports.
This is, quite frankly, the opposite of negotiating or operating in good faith — and I don’t blame House progressives for refusing to go along.
What is impossible to discern is the point of all this. I suppose it’s true that Manchin has burnished his centrist bonafides, but so what? He’s not guaranteed to run for reelection in 2024, and even if he does, he’s hardly a lock to prevail in a state that Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020. For all of Manchin’s political machinations, there’s good reason to believe that none of it will make a difference — and that he’s political roadkill no matter what he does. For Sinema, every day of obstinance seems to erode further her standing among Democratic voters in Arizona and hasten the possibility of a primary challenge against her in 2024.
And where exactly is the political benefit to any Democrat from blocking popular legislation that Americans actively support? Is Manchin or Sinema going to get any help from holding the line on more spending, particularly in an era when intense polarization means that voter decisions are made almost exclusively on party registration? Maybe it slightly helps Manchin, who has consistently won Republican votes in West Virginia, to look like he’s holding off the liberal hordes, but how does it help Sinema in Arizona, which is clearly trending blue? She is acting in a way that runs counter to the political direction of her state.
I get that Sinema ran as a moderate, independent candidate in 2018 and became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona in decades. That was an impressive accomplishment. But, two years later, Democrat Mark Kelly was elected to the Senate, and he’s made clear his support for Biden’s agenda. Kelly is up again in 2022, as his election in 2020 was to fill the rest of John McCain’s term. Sinema seems to have overlearned the lesson of her victory in 2018 and ignored what brought Kelly success in 2020.
Dems in Disarray
The larger question is about the optics of all this. To the extent that any political benefit is garnered from the process, isn’t it more than outweighed by the image of a party in disarray?
One of the reasons for Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was that he projected an image of solidity. He was the proverbial adult in the room and a break from the chaos of the Trump years. With Biden in the White House, Washington could hopefully move past its gridlock and dysfunction. Instead, Democrats are presenting an image of chaos to the nation, with long-drawn-out negotiations that suggest the party is mired in disagreement (when in fact, it isn’t). Even worse, Democrats are the party of government — shouldn’t they want Americans to see their federal legislative body as responsive, functional, and effective?
Rather than talking about the policy accomplishments of a major piece of legislation or spending their time attacking Republican governors, like DeSantis and Abbott, for making the pandemic worse, Democrats are wasting their time fighting amongst themselves. Congress should have resolved this situation months ago with moderates and liberals sitting down behind closed doors, hammering out an agreement, and sparing the country the image of legislative sausage-making. Even if the parties reach a deal now, the image of dysfunction will be hard to wash away.
If they don’t reach an agreement, then Biden’s presidency could be fatally wounded, and the chances of Democrats holding on to the House and Senate will look even slimmer. How does that make any political sense at all?
While there is plenty of blame to go around, it’s hard not to escape the view that Manchin and Sinema are single-handedly responsible for most of it. At the very least, I’ll give House progressives credit for at least making the effort to negotiate in good faith and be transparent about what they want.
Indeed, this whole episode feels like an example of missing the forest for the trees. The bottom line for Democrats is that if they want to have any hope of holding the House and Senate, they need to “do something.” They need to enact legislation they promised to pass. They need to deliver tangible benefits to the American people — like paid family leave and universal pre-K, subsidized child care, an extended child tax credit, free community college, higher subsidies for health care coverage, expanded Medicare benefits, money for high-speed rail, new bridges, and tunnels, and broadband access. And they need to do it in such a way that instills confidence in the party and government in general.
Lopping off a few trillion dollars for the sake of lopping off a few trillion dollars (and that very much appears to be Manchin and Sinema’s rationale) serves no purpose. It undercuts the scope of the party’s policy agenda and creates needless enmity between liberals and moderates. And there’s simply zero evidence that voters will care one way or the other. Maybe there’s a group of Americans who say “I’d vote for a Democrat if their budget package was $2.5 trillion, but as soon as hit $3.5 trillion they lost me.” But I seriously doubt it. Most Americans barely follow this stuff. My job is to pay attention to Congress and I’m barely doing it and don’t really understand much of what’s going on (for the record, when I speak to my contacts on Capitol Hill I hear the same thing).
Americans want Congress to do stuff, and they’re not interested in the drama. That’s how voters will judge the party — not on how much all this will cost, not the way a certain senator used their leverage to wring out a few more benefits, not by which bill passed first and which went second. So just do it and be done with all this. Every day spent not passing this legislation is a day that hurts Democrats, helps Republicans, and makes Congress look ridiculous. The reality is that Democrats are more united than pretty much any other time in recent history. It’s about time they started acting like it.
Musical Interlude
A few weeks ago, I picked up Bob Dylan’s 2016 album “Fallen Angels” the second of two records paying tribute to Frank Sinatra. Honestly, I wasn’t all the jazzed about this album since the premise didn’t seem all that musically appealing. Of course, I was wrong! This is a lovely album and I particularly enjoyed the lead cut — a version of “Young at Heart.”
Also loved this track — “Polka Dots and Moonbeams”