The GOP's Iowa SNAFU
The Iowa Caucus went exactly as expected, Trump prevailed. That doesn't mean Republicans -- and their presumptive frontrunner -- are not in trouble.
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I’m shocked, shocked to report that Donald Trump won the Iowa Caucus on Monday night. I mean, who could have seen this coming?
Trump won 51 percent of the vote in Iowa, with Ron DeSantis pulling 21 percent and Haley finishing third with 19 percent. Vivek Ramaswamy won a meager 7.7 percent and quickly announced his departure from the race, and, inshallah, we will never speak of him again.
As I noted last week, I had a feeling that Haley would finish behind DeSantis because the latter has the stronger ground game, and in the blizzard-like conditions on Monday night, that might have given him a slight turnout edge. As good as Trump’s night was, Haley’s third-place finish was the cherry on the sundae. With DeSantis finishing second, the Florida Governor can delude himself into believing he still has a chance at the nomination. That means he won’t be dropping out. In fact, DeSantis is skipping New Hampshire to make a play in South Carolina.
So even if Haley does well in the Granite State — and considering the makeup of the state’s GOP electorate and the large number of independent voters that’s a strong possibility — she will not yet be able to narrow the race to a two-person contest. It likely wouldn’t have mattered anyway — Trump is still the odds-on favorite, but she could have made things interesting for a while. That’s a much taller order now.
So, Iowa last night largely confirmed what we already knew: Trump is the frontrunner and, barring some unforeseen event, will win the party’s nod to challenge President Joe Biden in November. That’s the “situation normal” of the GOP’s SNAFU.
The f’ed up part is that there is clearly a persistent minority of Republican voters who don’t like Trump. I wouldn’t get too caught up in the fact that half of the GOP electorate voted against him in Iowa. Ramaswamy is a Trump-esque figure, and I’d imagine most of his support will go to the frontrunner. DeSantis has tied himself closely to Trump throughout this campaign, and I expect many of his supporters will do the same. However, Haley’s 19 percent is a wild card, as some polling suggests a healthy chunk of her supporters could vote for Biden in November.
Along those lines, Elliot Morris made a smart point about some entrance poll data.
Just because 32 percent of Iowa Republicans believe a criminal conviction would make Trump unfit for office … doesn’t mean they won’t vote for Trump. Most will. But if even a small percentage of those 32 percent either cast a ballot for Biden or stay home, that’s a problem for Trump. I’m sorry if I’m a broken record on this point, but Trump has a high floor and a low ceiling. Surpassing the 47% threshold he missed in 2020 will be tough. Yes, some Biden voters will switch sides, but persuasion is not Trump’s path to victory — it’s mobilization. Keep in mind Trump won 94 percent of Republican voters in 2020. Shave a few points off that number, and the road to 270 looks much more difficult.
What’s also worth noting is that the turnout on Monday night was quite low. Just under 15 percent of Iowa Republicans turned out. I don’t want to read too much into that number because a) the race wasn’t considered all that competitive, and b) it was really, really cold. Still, those who did show up at their caucus spots are likely among the party’s most committed partisans (and the 32% number only reflects those who caucused). It’s not a stretch to imagine that the number of Republicans not inclined to come to a party caucus also might stay home next November if they have qualms about voting for a convicted felon (assuming Trump is convicted).
Also, Iowa is a fairly conservative electorate. That 32 percent say a criminal conviction for Trump is a problem is higher than I expected. I’d be curious to see where these numbers are in more purple states, but again, it doesn’t take all many Republicans to jump ship for Trump’s goose to be cooked.
Of course, back on Planet Earth, that 63 percent of Iowa would not consider a criminally convicted Trump unfit for office is, how shall we say, batshit insane.
Also, there is this:
In case you had forgotten that the GOP electorate has fallen off the crazy tree and hit every branch on the way down … here’s your reminder.
Still, poll after poll shows that around a third of Republicans have some ethical and moral qualms voting for an election-denying, convicted felon. That’s now. Where will these numbers be in nine months after multiple trials and countless Trump social media rants about how poorly he is being treated? One can certainly argue that Biden has problems with his base (and he does). But I think the challenge is bigger for Trump because his appeal is relatively narrow, and he’s shown no inclination to broaden his appeal to non-MAGA voters.
Lastly, several recent polls suggest many Americans simply don’t believe Trump will be the 2024 nominee. Last night could serve as the wake-up call to wayward Democrats and Biden-skeptical voters that it’s happening. I would not be shocked if, over the next few weeks, as Trump piles up primary and caucus wins, the president’s numbers ever so slightly improve.
So Monday night was good for Trump, but there are still major reasons for concern below the surface.
GO LIONS!!
ICYMI … and yeah, I was there! Truly one of the greatest nights of my life!
What’s Going On
This is a good piece by Ben Jacobs on how the Iowa caucus has changed in the age of Trump.
Yet more evidence is emerging that Hamas’s tunnel system is far more extensive than anyone knew.
Musical Interlude
When I was a kid, this Grateful Dead show at the University of Iowa on August 10, 1982, was one of my favorite bootlegs (and generally, I’m not a big 1982 fan). Give it a listen!
That is a great GD show. Audio is clean. Set list is awesome. Feels like a stranger opener and lost sailor into Saint. Love it.