The International Order Strikes Back
How badly is the Russian war in Ukraine going? Let us count the ways.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
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I have really lousy timing when it comes to vacation. In March 2003, I went to Bermuda when bombs started dropping on Baghdad. In 2005, I was hiking in Washington State when Katrina hit — and now Russia invades Ukraine. Also, I'm currently in Memphis, Tennessee … and my computer is in Nashville. Nonetheless, the news never stops, so here's a quick update on the situation in Ukraine.
On The Battlefield
It's always a dangerous thing to predict how a war will go just a few days in, but it's fairly clear that, so far at least, things are not going well for Russia — both on the battlefield and off. More than four days into the war Russian forces have yet to capture a major Ukrainian city. Many assumed Kharkiv, which is near the Russian border, would be the first significant urban area to fall but it appears that Ukrainian forces are putting up stiff resistance. Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Kyiv, but the city remains in Ukrainian hands. There are scattered reports that Russian troops are bogged down and running out of fuel. In addition, and perhaps of greatest surprise, Russia has not established control of Ukrainian airspace. An effort in the first hours of the war to seize the airport in Kiev failed. For all the fears of Russian "shock and awe" overwhelming Ukrainian forces, it simply didn't happen.
Having said that … the Russian military vastly outnumbers Ukraine's and has far more sophisticated weaponry. It would be miraculous if Kyiv could withstand Russia's military, but that things are (so far) going so poorly for Moscow does not bode well.
It suggests that Ukraine is committed to resisting the Russian offensive and is fighting with greater tenacity than the invading Russian forces. Morale is no small thing in warfare and on that front, Ukraine appears to have the advantage. Moreover, the slower things go on the ground, the more international pressure on Moscow will increase — and military support for Ukraine will grow. The Russians needed to win this war quickly and create a fait accompli. They have failed to do that. The intensity of Ukrainian resistance also suggests that even if Russia does eventually prevail, they will be dealing with an angry, hostile, and well-armed populace who will not simply accept Russian occupation or a puppet leader in Ukraine.
My one major concern, however, is that if the Russian offensive is further bogged down it may push Putin to adopt more aggressive and dangerous tactics. There are already reports of Russian attacks on civilian targets but so far, we haven’t seen a major effort to target civilians or use indiscriminate bombing (as Russia regularly did in Syria). I fear that could change if things continue to go poorly on the battlefield.
Off The Battlefield
The Russian ruble hit its lowest level ever against the dollar on Saturday. Russian airlines are being cut off from flying to Europe. The soccer Champions League final will be moved from St. Petersburg, and there is talk of banning World Cup qualifying matches in Russia. And domestic anger in Russia over the war — as well as public protests — are growing.
All these measures take a tool, but they are small potatoes compared to the announcement from the White House on Saturday afternoon: that in concert with European allies, key Russian banks will be disconnected from the SWIFT international payments system. In addition, the US and Europe are targeting the Russian Central Bank with sanctions and creating a task force to "identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs." These steps go much further than those announced at the onset of hostilities and suggest that Russia's attack has galvanized and united Europe like no other event in the past 30 years. And it's not just Europe; Japan too has joined the SWIFT measures.
The cherry on the sundae on this newfound European commitment to continental security was the announcement on Sunday morning by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Germany will increase defense spending to 2% of GDP — a long-time demand of US officials. Berlin will create a 100 billion euro special fund for defense and is now sending military assistance to Ukraine. If Putin's gambit has pushed Germany to rearm and commit itself to robust European security measures, Russia has basically already lost the war in Ukraine.
What we're seeing here is the danger in violating international norms, particularly in a globalized economic system. If the international community wants to punish a country for acting outside the global rules, it has the means to do so. And because there is such a strong international consensus supporting those norms, it also has the will. When the war in Ukraine began, more than a few pundits claimed that it represented the end of the post-Cold War world order. Putin was trying to change the rules of the game, or so the argument went. But, if anything, the opposite is true. The global response to Russia's attack shows the international order's resilience. This isn't like 1979 when the USSR invaded Afghanistan. Then Moscow had Communist allies around the world and was largely isolated from the international economic system. The US and other Western governments sought to punish the Soviets, but they had limited means to do so. Now when Russia or any country goes to war, it can and often will face the consequences of angry international public opinion.
Indeed, I find it difficult to believe that the groundswell of anger over Russia's actions is not a major driver on the ramping up of sanctions over the past 48 hours. People around the world are furious and for a good reason.
Those who opposed the Iraq War in 2003 didn't do so out of affection for Saddam Hussein. But now things are very different. Ukraine has done nothing to justify the Russian attack on its independence and sovereignty. The studied refusal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to leave Kyiv and the videos of him pledging to fight the Russian military is inspiring the world. So too are the pictures of ordinary Ukrainians taking up arms to defend their country. We are watching, in real-time, an entire populace rise up in resistance to an indefensible and unprovoked attack. At a time of such cynical national politics -- both here and around the world -- it's deeply inspiring to see ordinary people commit themselves to freedom and demonstrate the purest and most laudable form of patriotism..
So too is this:
Also this guy:
Musical Interlude