The Kids Are Alright
The Kids Are Alright
Stop scaring parents about the risks from COVID. Also, a brief explanation as to why politicians run for president when they likely can't win.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to subscribe, you can sign up here.
Stop Scaring People About Covid
Headlines like this make me crazy.
There are two fundamental problems here. First, COVID-19 is the “eighth” leading cause of death among children (the chart below covers the period from August 2021 to July 2022).
Does this qualify as a “leading cause of death”? I’m not so sure. But here’s the more critical piece of data buried deep in the CNN article: “A CDC survey of blood samples suggests that more than 90% of children have already had Covid-19 at least once.” That’s a lot of kids.
In fact, the CDC estimates that 65,699,000 children in America have had one or more COVID-19 infections.
How many children between the ages of 0-18 have died from COVID since 2020? According to the CDC, the number is 1,647.
Thankfully, that’s not a lot of kids, and obviously, each one is a tragedy.
But this is not a “relatively low mortality rate” … it is an infinitesimally low mortality rate. Math is not my strong point, but here’s what the mortality rate looks like in numerical terms.
When you throw in the fact that “children are less vaccinated against Covid-19 than any other age group in the US” and that “less than 10% of eligible children have gotten their updated booster shot, and more than 90% of children under 5 are completely unvaccinated,” it only magnifies the point that children are at close to zero risk of getting seriously ill and dying from COVID (for children with underlying illnesses or who are immunocompromised the risk is greater).
This hasn’t stopped some media commentators from fanning the flames of hysteria about the risks to kids from COVID — or CNN from hyping up the risks. Indeed, a more appropriate headline above would have read, “Your kids are safe from COVID.”
Don’t get me wrong, getting your kids vaccinated is important. The vaccines are safe. There are no side effects, and even if the risk is incredibly small, there’s no good reason not to protect your children. But the lack of context when it comes to the dangers posed to children — or even the risks posed to those vaccinated—is constantly being hyped by a small but persistent group of Americans, who for whatever reason, don’t want the world to return to pre-COVID normalcy. So get vaccinated, get boosted, make sure your children get the shot … and let them enjoy their lives.
It Beats Working At The Post Office
Nikki Haley, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations, is running for president. She's likely not going to win, so it's hard to honestly care.
But people sometimes ask me, "why do candidates bother running when there's such a slim chance of winning?" I think there are five reasons. First, when considering political motivations, ALWAYS remember the dominant role of ego. Pretty much every ambitious politician looks in the mirror and sees a potential commander-in-chief staring back at them. Indeed, I often think of this quote from Nelson Rockefeller, who once said when asked about running for president, "I'm a politician. That is my profession. Success in politics, real success means only one thing in America." We often forget that electoral politics is a profession, and if one wants to be the best at their job, then running for president is always in the back of their mind.
Second, running for president is an excellent way to raise one's national profile for a future campaign. Haley is only 51 years old. If she loses in 2024, she can run again in 2028, but this time with the hard-earned experience and contacts from a presidential campaign. Bush (HW), Reagan, Biden, and Nixon (LBJ sort of) ran unsuccessfully for president before finally winning the brass ring. Clinton (Hillary), McCain, Dole, Humphrey, and Romney each had a failed run before winning their party's nomination.
Third, Haley could be positioning herself for a vice-presidential nod. Trump is both a racist and a misogynist, but I imagine even he recognizes that picking a female running mate would provide some political benefit. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem is clearly angling for the number two position, but Haley would likely be a more substantial pick with less baggage. So even if Haley loses, she has outs.
Fourth, anything can happen. I can't find the source for this, but I remember reading years ago that when Bill Clinton, in 1991, heard that Mario Cuomo was not running for president, he and Hillary suddenly realized that he had a chance of winning the nomination. Until then, they figured, like most political pundits, it was Cuomo's race to lose, and a '92 campaign would lay the groundwork for a later, more serious effort. Considering Clinton's liabilities (revelations about extramarital affairs and dodging the Vietnam War draft), if any half-decent Democrat had run that year, he likely would not have won the Democratic nomination. In 2008, Barack Obama was unquestionably a long shot at becoming the Democrat's standard-bearer — and barely eked out a victory over Hillary Clinton. But sometimes, things break your way, and quite obviously, throwing your hat in the ring increases your odds.
Fifth, when Bernie Sanders first announced his candidacy for the White House in 2015, I seriously doubt he thought he could win. But running for president allowed him to raise the profile of policy issues that mattered to him. And it worked! Liz Cheney may run for president in 2024, and she has no chance of winning. But it allows her to rail against Trump's harmful impact on the party and the country. For her, that's a good enough reason to do it.
I tend to think that most of the Republicans running this cycle, with the exception of Ron DeSantis, have two, three, and four in mind. Most know they can't beat Trump, and even if they do would likely be a long shot to defeat Biden. But running, even unsuccessfully, can still bring real benefits — and hey, you never know what can happen. It's probably worth keeping those in mind when assessing their candidacies this election cycle.
What’s Going On
Ron DeSantis appears completely intent on destroying the educational system in Florida … and all so he can run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Smart piece by Paul Waldman on how the key to winning the GOP nomination is no longer about being personable … but rather acting like an asshole.
Senator Ted Cruz thinks the FBI should search Hunter Biden’s home for classified material even though Biden has never served in government, doesn’t have a security clearance, and is not suspected of absconding with classified material. Maybe this is something that the House GOP’s new Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government should look into … namely, a US Senator proposing that the nation’s federal investigative agency terrorize a private citizen simply because his father is president of the United States.
I’m glad to see someone writing about how tipping in America has gotten completely out of control. It’s undoubtedly a by-product of digital payment systems, but there is little reason a consumer should be expected to leave a tip when someone pours them a cup of coffee or they pick up food for takeout. It’s not that I object to leaving a gratuity. I tip my Uber or Lyft driver (thought that the default is now 20 percent is absurd). I give a tip to the guy who delivers my laundry. I always tip at restaurants. But tipping is basically a tax on consumers passed along by employers who don’t pay their workers a high enough wage.
This is a good honest, no-bullshit headline from the New York Times.
Musical Interlude