I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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So first, a quick housekeeping note: I’m heading out on vacation tomorrow with my family, so I will only post occasionally between now and next Friday. Also, I know it’s been a while since I’ve done a ZoomChat, and it’s largely a function traveling practically every Friday this summer. I promise the Zoom chats will return when I return to some semblance of normalcy in my schedule.
You Can’t Reboot A Failure
The great Ron DeSantis reboot has begun!
Over the past six months, the Ron DeSantis campaign has … struggled. His poll numbers have dropped, and he is now trailing Trump by 20-30 points in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. According to the New York Times, DeSantis has “burned through nearly 40 percent of every dollar he raised in his first six weeks without airing a single television ad,” and the campaign is now laying off one -third of its staff. His obsession with Very Online Issues is alienating not-Very Online Republican voters, and he continues to struggle when it comes to basic retail politics.
But, it seems, hopes spring eternal.
Mr. DeSantis still has time to reset. There have been no debates yet. His super PAC, which is called Never Back Down, brought in $130 million. And the first votes are nearly six months away in Iowa, where Mr. Trump has made missteps of his own.
“Six months is a lifetime in politics,” said Terry Sullivan, who served as Senator Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign manager, noting that in July 2015 Jeb Bush was still ahead in some polling averages. “He has definitely burned a lot of time, but it’s been a learning process for his campaign.”
Here’s the thing: when it comes to politics, winning the presidency is like winning the NBA Most Valuable Player Award — it proves that you are the best. It’s the pinnacle of political success.
To win an NBA title means you are great at basketball. To win a presidential election means you are great at politics. But if you stink at presidential politics (as DeSantis has for the past six months), it means you’re not about to turn the ship around and win the White House (just as nobody who stinks at basketball suddenly turns things around mid-season and wins the MVP award). Granted, every athlete has slumps, but usually, there’s an apparent kernel of greatness. So far, nothing about the DeSantis campaign screams good, no less greatness.
A DeSantis fan might argue that it’s not fair to say that a guy who has won two statewide elections in Florida is bad at politics … but that’s like saying a guy who was great at college basketball will be a dominant NBA player. Obviously, some are, but many, even great college basketball players, struggle at the pro level. Most don’t even make it to the NBA. You must be a special player to be a dominant NBAer, just as you need to be a special politician to become presidential timber. And it’s pretty clear at this point that DeSantis is not special or dominant.
Before I stretch this analogy too far, let me cut to the chase: no successful reboot or reset is coming for DeSantis — at least not in 2024. DeSantis’s presidential campaign has been one unforced error after another. That doesn’t get fixed overnight, and certainly not when the frontrunner for the GOP nomination is a politician as inexplicably beloved within the Republican party as Donald Trump. If Trump drops out (or drops dead) between now and the Iowa caucus, maybe DeSantis will have a chance at the 2024 nod. But barring such unforeseen events, it would take a miracle for him to defeat Trump and emerge victorious at the Republican National Convention.
Quite simply, in basketball, as in politics … the ball don’t lie.
Trolling The Libs
So it seems that former New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte is running for Governor. Here is her tweet announcing her candidacy.
One phrase from this announcement stands out: “I fear we are one election away from turning into Massachusetts.” According to Ayotte, it’s the reason she is seeking elected office.
Now I’ll grant you that New Hampshire is, compared to most American states, a pretty good place to live. According to the latest US News and World Report rankings, it’s the sixth best state to live in America. As for Massachusetts … it’s eleventh, which is still pretty good! Other recent rankings put Massachusetts at number one. Simply put, the Bay State is not a bad place to live. (It also seems worthy of note that until earlier this year, Massachusetts had a Republican governor for eight years).
So why is Ayotte dumping on it in her announcement tweet? Because Massachusetts has a reputation as one of the most liberal states in America … as exemplified by this classic Simpsons clip.
So the subtext of Ayotte’s reference to Massachusetts is that liberals are the worst, and if you don’t elect her governor, then New Hampshire will become more like it’s a neighbor, which I can only assume — in the conservative mind space — means drag shows in every preschool, drive-thru abortions and gender reassignment surgeries, and a statue of Che Guevara fellating Mao Tse-Tung at the entrance to Boston Common.
The thing with Ayotte is that she hardly qualifies as a MAGA Republican. She is not a moderate, per se, but she’s not a fire-breathing conservative either. But even though New Hampshire is an increasingly Democratic state, she will be running for governor amidst a crowded field of Republican candidates, most of whom are more conservative than her. So she needs to stake out turf on the far right of the party … and what better way to do that than trolling liberals.
It begs the question: are Republicans capable of making a single political pitch not oriented around shitting on the left? The answer, it seems, is no. Because the only thing that truly unites the modern Republican party is owning the libs. After all, this is a party that preached an anti-Covid vaccine message, in part because Democrats advocated for the vaccine — and many rank-and-file Republicans did exactly that, with predictable results. Indeed, according to a study out this week, registered Republicans in Ohio and Florida died in “significantly higher” numbers from Covid after vaccines were readily available.
This is what the GOP has become: a party defined not by what it’s for but what it hates … and no one, it seems, is immune from the pressure to appease the party’s reactionary impulses.
What’s Going On
People are again rooting for Jesse Singal to die because they don’t like the things he has written.
The New York Times points out that Ron DeSantis has the blood of 16,000 Floridians on his hands.
It seems Vladimir Putin was caught flat-footed in his response to last month’s nascent rebellion.
Republicans are increasingly launching direct and personal attacks against Joe Biden and his family.
Elon Musk is a schmuck.
Musical Interlude
I really like your columns! I first watched you on various MSNBC shows and you really seemed to have crossed a bridge by admitting your past, honesty and with remorse. You never seem to hold back and are amusing at the same time. I'm the only Democrat in my family so I am trying to soften some of them up (with TFG helping everytime he opens his mouth!). I do share with my friends. Keep it up!!!
" ... that’s like saying a guy who was great at college basketball will be a dominant NBA player. Obviously, some are, but many, even great college basketball players, struggle at the pro level. Most don’t even make it to the NBA."
Speaking of which, here's an article from the Spokane newspaper (picked up by the Seattle Times today) about Gonzaga's three-time All American Drew Timme: undrafted, signed by the Milwaukee Bucks, and struggling in the NBA Summer League. I wouldn't have thought to pair Timme with DeSantis, but maybe so.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/gonzaga-bulldogs/coming-off-iconic-college-career-drew-timme-is-now-starting-back-at-the-bottom-in-nba/