I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, ’ absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
No photo better defines the Trump Era than this one. No notes. It’s absolute perfection.
Trump Is In Serious Trouble
I made the point on my Zoom Chat earlier today (before I read the indictment) that I found it hard to believe that special prosecutor Jack Smith would have brought these charges if he didn’t have the goods on Trump. He has the goods. The evidence against Trump is simply overwhelming.
First, let’s consider the classified material that Trump had in his possession.
It’s undoubtedly true that the US government tends to overclassify too many documents, but this ain’t that. This particular classified information, falling into the wrong hands, would genuinely imperil US national security. There is no reasonable explanation for why Trump had it in his possession or why he was showing it to people.
Second, Trump left the material in highly insecure places, not just the bathroom pictured above.
Any member of the Mar-a-Lago club could have come in from the pool, wandered down a hallway, and reviewed hundreds of Trump presidential documents, including classified material. Can you imagine the recriminations taking place in intelligence agencies around the world when they realize they missed this opportunity to steal some of America’s most valuable national security secrets? All they needed was a Mar-a-Lago membership.
Third, Trump is an absolute idiot — the GOAT of dumb criminals.
This alone should guarantee a conviction for the mishandling of classified materials. The fact that Trump acknowledged that he shouldn’t be showing someone a secret document — and then told him not to get too close — is incredibly damning. That he said he should have declassified a document that was marked secret completely eviscerates the argument that the material in his possession had been declassified. Trump is on tape acknowledging that he knows that is not true. Both of these stories make it incredibly difficult for his lawyers to compose an effective defense.
Fourth, the case for obstruction of justice is airtight.
“Attorney 1” was tasked with searching Trump’s boxes for classified material requested by the Department of Justice … but before that search was conducted, Trump had Walt Nauta, his personal aide, remove dozens of boxes (Nauta was also indicted). Days after, Trump had another of his lawyers falsely certify that a diligent search had been done and all documents had been turned over. Trump knew that wasn’t true.
Moreover, Trump mused with his lawyers about lying to the Justice Department and refusing to abide by a grand jury subpoena.
In this case, the big question is whether Nauta will flip on Trump and testify against him. Indeed, he has plenty of motivation to do that since the case against him is nearly as strong as the one against Trump. (Text messages in the indictment show Nauta lied to the FBI).
Fifth, this is a great day for democracy. As I wrote for MSNBC:
A former president being held accountable for criminal acts is the true manifestation of the nation’s founding creed that all Americans are equal under the law. Trump’s indictment is the realization of that ideal and a reason for genuine celebration.
As special prosecutor Jack Smith noted in his brief remarks on Friday, “We have one set of laws in this country, and they apply to everyone.”
… for all the pious proclamations of Republican leaders about the sanctity of the rule of law, Trump’s defenders have things exactly backward. Nothing would do more to weaken the rule of law in America — or the notion of equality under the law — than Trump escaping criminal accountability for his actions … If Republicans had their way, the work of this federal grand jury, composed of ordinary citizens doing their civic duty, would be thrown in the trash.
How is that upholding the rule of law? By even suggesting that a Trump indictment undermines the rule of law — without any of them having actually seen the evidence amassed against Trump — Republicans are themselves undermining it. What they want and what they are calling for is a two-tiered system of justice in which one of the most powerful political figures in America would be untouchable by the criminal justice system.
As Bob Dylan reminds us, “Even the President of the United States sometimes must have to stand naked.”
Sixth, the case against Trump is so strong that we need to consider the genuine possibility that when all is said and done, he will end up in prison. Because of his potential legal peril, he is unlikely to drop out of the presidential race. I’d imagine he sees winning the presidency as his only chance of avoiding prison time, particularly if the trial is pushed back until after Election Day 2024 (a distinct possibility).
I’ve been fairly skeptical about Trump’s chance of winning the 2024 election, and this indictment only increases my skepticism. The big question is whether it harms his chances of winning the Republican nomination — and I’ll need to see polling that shows his support slipping before I believe he is in real political jeopardy. As long as his Republican rivals continue defending him, it remains Trump’s race to lose.
There is another option: Trump takes a plea. If Nauta flips, that’s a very distinct possibility. Granted, Trump wants to play the martyr, but at some point, he may start reading the writing on the wall.
Oh, and one last thing: this is Trump’s first federal indictment — but it may not be his last. There’s still the matter of the January 6 investigation, not to mention the election interference case in Georgia, which seems likely to end up in another indictment. In short, it’ll be one interesting summer.
Musical Interlude
I worry about judge Cannon, who has been proven absolutely corrupt , and the fact that Miami is bright-red Republican. Help!!!
Fantastic article!