The Water Is Fine

Why is Kamala Harris mining for GOP support? There's gold in them thar hills. Also, my theory of victory for Harris and a soaking wet Musical Interlude

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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A Permission Structure To Vote For Kamala Harris

Why did Joe Biden win in 2020? By and large, it was because he significantly increased his support in suburban communities. From Pew Research’s 2020 post-mortem … “In 2020, Biden improved upon Clinton’s vote share with suburban voters: 45% supported Clinton in 2016 vs. 54% for Biden in 2020.”

Ron Brownstein’s piece this week puts a bit more meat on the bone.

The bigger shift toward the Democrats in 2020 came in the inner suburbs around those cities. Biden won Michigan’s Oakland County by roughly twice as large a margin (108,000 votes) as Clinton did in 2016, or as Obama did in 2012; Biden also made significant gains in well-educated Kent County, around Grand Rapids, and Washtenaw County, which encompasses the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.

Similarly, Biden won the big four suburban counties outside Philadelphia by a breathtaking combined margin of about 293,000 votes, roughly 115,000 more than Clinton’s four years earlier. In Wisconsin, Biden won booming Dane County, centered on Madison, by about 35,000 more votes than Clinton got in 2016, and he cut her deficit in Waukesha, a historically Republican-leaning suburb outside Milwaukee, by about 10,000 votes. (Harris appeared with Cheney in Waukesha yesterday.)

If Harris gets the same kind of support from these inner suburbs as Biden did, it’s tough to see how she loses … barring a historic drop-off in Black support. These suburban voters used to vote Republican consistently, but the double whammy of Trump’s divisive politics and the abortion issue has switched their allegiance. These voters (both men and women), many of whom voted for Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential primary, are the key to Harris prevailing in November.

This brings me to two news stories that I think deserve greater attention.

The mayor of Waukesha, the seat of a reliably Republican county outside Milwaukee, Wisconsin, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president on Wednesday — the first time the formerly Republican city leader is supporting a Democrat for commander in chief, the campaign said.

“It would be easier for me to stay quiet and vote my conscience privately, but the stakes of this election are so important that I feel compelled to share publicly that I am voting for Vice President Kamala Harris and I encourage other Wisconsinites who care about our country to do the same,” (Shawn) Reilly said in a statement circulated by the Harris campaign.

There is also this from Michigan.

On Thursday, GOP former Michigan Rep. Fred Upton also endorsed Harris, saying in a statement that he has never voted for a Democrat for president "until now."

Trump is "unfit to serve as commander in chief again," Upton said.

It’s great for her campaign that Harris has the support of Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and other Republicans, but Reilly and Upton are politicians well-known by the Republican voters in their district. They might have previously cast a ballot for them — and may even know them personally. Their endorsement creates a permission structure for on-the-fence Republican voters to cross the aisle and support Harris. Keep in mind that every Republican who votes for Harris rather than Trump is not a one-vote swing — it's a two-vote swing because it takes a GOP voter away from Trump.

There’s a reason Harris has organized so many political events with former Republicans this fall. (For example, last week, Harris held a rally with Republicans at Washington Crossing in Bucks County. That's another of those inner suburbs where Harris needs to run up the score).

If Harris can take enough GOP voters away from Trump, it could make it impossible for him to beat her. My theory of this race (which I know I’ve repeated ad nauseum) is that Trump is a high-floor, low-ceiling candidate. He needs every Republican vote and needs just enough Democratic voters to switch sides or stay home.

Harris stealing Republican voters from Trump decidedly lowers his ceiling. She already has a much higher ceiling than Trump … basically, Biden’s 51 percent of the popular vote in 2020. If we find out on the evening of November 8 that Harris is the next president, it will likely be because she dominated in the inner suburbs around Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee, as well as Atlanta, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Las Vegas — and did so by winning the support of a crucial number of former Republicans.

The Politics of Abortion

This is one of the most powerful political ads I’ve ever seen.

For Harris to win, she needs to mobilize women voters and exploit the considerable gender gap in the electorate.

To be sure, the gender gap in American politics has been evident for some time and is part of the reason Democrats have done so well over the last three election cycles. But based on the polling, the Democrats’ advantage with female voters this year might be bigger than ever—and women angry over the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade are a big part of the reason why. An ad like this, which is truly devastating, should help in that effort.

Do I Think Harris Will Win?

Since my post earlier this week, a couple of people have emailed me asking for more specifics on whether I think Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.