Just a quick reminder that I’ll be Zoom Chatting today at 12:30. We’re going to talk about the 2022 midterms; the prospects for Donald Trump getting indicted, and I have a cool announcement to make about what I’ll be doing (work-wise) for the next two years! The link to the chat is here.
I mentioned yesterday in my post that Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Mastro might be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the country … and right on cue she dropped this doozy of an attack ad against her Republican opponent Adam Laxalt. This one is going to leave a mark:
One additional point I should have made in yesterday’s post is that while his numbers have ticked up slightly, Joe Biden remains extremely unpopular — and yet voters are making a strong distinction between how they view the president and how they are thinking of voting in November. So in a place like Wisconsin, the Senate Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes is polling above 50 percent at the same time that Biden’s favorabilities are mired in the 40s. We’re seeing this disparity in a number of states, including Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
A few important things are happening here. First, voters are clearly differentiating between a Democratic president and Democratic candidates (that’s very good for Democrats since Biden’s number stink). Second, dissatisfaction with Biden may be a reflection of frustration about the direction of the country rather than anti-Biden attitudes. Third, because of the recent Supreme Court decision on abortion — and perhaps alarm at the growing extremism of the GOP — the usual benchmarks that determine midterm electoral outcomes (presidential approval, the economy, etc.) don’t matter as much. Usually, in a midterm election, the enthusiasm and political momentum are with the out-party (this year, that’s the GOP). But in 2022, we’re seeing the opposite: the incumbent party is matching if not surpassing the out party on voter enthusiasm.
Lastly, as Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report notes this week, there’s been a vibe shift in how voters view the two parties:
In May, the Navigator Research survey found that just 43 percent of voters thought that Democrats were "mostly" or "somewhat" focused on the "right things," while 49 percent said Democrats were mostly or somewhat focused on the "wrong things." Republicans, however, were seen as somewhat more in touch: 47 percent said that Republicans were focused on the right things, while 44 percent thought they were concentrating on the wrong things.
By August, however, that GOP advantage had evaporated. Just 42 percent of voters thought the GOP was focused on the right things compared to 51 percent who said they were focused on the wrong things; a 12-point shift in the wrong direction. Even so, Democrats haven't made up any ground. A majority (52 percent), think that Democrats haven't been focused on the right things, while just 43 percent think that they have; a three-point shift in the wrong direction since May.
In other words, it's not that voters think Democrats are doing better; it's that they think Republicans are as out-of-touch as as Democrats.
See ya at 12:30 today!
I’m so glad you’re doing what you’re doing. It took some guts to make some of your moves and to say on tv, live that “there must be something missing in us,” you have proven that you are looking for it. Trying to help fix a mess that you have helped create. I am trying to do that, too. It’s a gruesome process, but I am proud of myself. Once you see a light, Anne Rice says you have to be willing to make fool of yourself, sometimes to show it to others. May she rest in glory.