Trump's Immigration Numbers Go South
Maybe it's not a "distraction" for Democrats to talk about illegal deportations
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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Let’s take a quick look at Donald Trump’s approval rating.
(Previously, I’ve been relying on Nate Silver’s polling aggregator, but Decision Desk has a new one out, and as a big fan of their work, I may start using theirs exclusively.)
Decision Desk has Trump 6.7 points underwater — and, as you can see, those numbers have worsened significantly over the past few days (a decline of 2.1 points since April 20).
On Election Day, Trump was 17 points above water. He was never going to remain that popular, but a 23.7-point shift in approval ratings over three months is remarkable. I’m running out of ways to say that Trump’s first 100 days have been, from a polling perspective, an unmitigated disaster.
Immigration Giveth and Immigration Taketh
Two polls released this week offer an intriguing clue as to why Trump’s decline has been so severe — and seems to be worsening.
A new Reuters poll, which shows Trump’s approval at 42%, indicates that he is now even on immigration, with 45% approval and 46% disapproval.
According to a YouGov poll out today, Trump is at 45/50 on immigration — a stark reversal from two weeks ago when Trump was at 50/44
Why such a dramatic shift in Trump’s immigration numbers … here’s a clue.
By a 50-28 margin, Americans want to see Kilmar Abrego Garcia returned to the United States. Among independents, the numbers are 50-23, and even 17 percent of Republicans think Abrego Garcia should come home to his family.
Additionally, 59 percent of Americans believe the White House is making “some” or “many” mistakes regarding deportations.
Finally, a plurality of voters (49%) believe that Trump is violating court orders.
So remember last week when folks were arguing that Democrats were spending too much time talking about deportations and not enough about the economy. Maybe not so much. Arguably, the focus on Abrego Garcia’s case has hurt the president’s approval rating (and might explain why his numbers have dropped so dramatically over the past few days).
In a sense, these numbers are not necessarily shocking. During the 2024 election, there was popular support for mass deportations, but major caveats were always attached. For example, as polling by Data Progress showed, there was strong backing for deporting undocumented migrants with a criminal record or those who had just recently arrived.
However, when it comes to migrants who have lived in the US for several years, have protected status, or are seeking asylum, the numbers were significantly different. Most Americans do not want those individuals deported. (Numerous other polls also showed similar results.)
But Trump and those around him came into office believing that immigration was the key to his victory — and that Americans voted for him to take a hardline on deportations. As we’re now finding out, that wasn’t the case. Like many presidents before him, Trump misread his election victory as a mandate for change, rather than, at least in his case, a rejection of the party in power.
This is a real political problem for the White House. Trump has already squandered his long-standing advantage on the economy with his ridiculous tariff policy.
Now he’s at risk of throwing away his edge on immigration. If voters are upset about Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration, what exactly will stop his approval numbers from getting worse?
If there is any silver lining for the White House, Republicans continue to support his immigration policies … though only up to a point. This result in the Reuters poll is interesting and potentially problematic for Trump.
Of course, many Republicans will convince themselves that Trump is NOT disobeying the court orders. Still, it is also clear that there are limits to how far Trump can push his authoritarian tendencies before sparking a backlash. It probably doesn’t help Trump that he keeps losing so many court cases, and often in spectacular fashion. Losing in court is the kind of thing that could convince non-partisan MAGA voters that maybe Trump is on the wrong side of an issue. The president doesn’t have to lose every Republican voter for this to matter. In a very narrowly divided country, even a small number of Republican voters turning against Trump and the GOP can have a significant impact.
For the time being, however, I don’t expect Trump to shift course. It’s evident that he doesn’t care about the future of the Republican Party and seems indifferent to his dwindling poll numbers. Moreover, I have to assume that Trump and his aides have convinced themselves that taking a hard line on immigration is a political winner, no matter what the polls show (that’s also likely why so few congressional Republicans have criticized the Abergo Garcia deportation — they likely assume it plays well with their Republican constituents). Plus, Trump’s hardline position keeps MAGA happy, which is probably his number one concern.
But these results should put to rest the idea that Democrats can’t or shouldn’t talk about Trump’s cruel immigration policies or that it’s a distraction from the economy. The economic news will take care of itself, no matter what Democrats say — but as we’ve seen over the past week, standing up for the rule of law and constitutional protection isn’t necessarily a political loser.
What’s Going On
I’m shocked, shocked, that Donald Trump is backing down on 145% tariffs on China.
I’m shocked, shocked, that Donald Trump is now saying he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell.
This opinion from a Reagan-appointed, Federalist Society judge criticizing the White House for its position in the Kilmar Abergo Garcia case is a must-read.
The Trump administration is planning to resume collections on student loan defaults for the first time in five years. It’s almost as if they want the country to go into an economic recession.
So it seems everyone at the Pentagon is talking to Beltway reporters about Pete Hegseth and his dysfunctional staff … but when it comes to “Best Hegseth Tenure Anecdote” to date, we have a winner (Kasper was Hegseth’s Chief of Staff).
It’s low-key hilarious that the source complained that Kasper told this story during a “business meeting” as if it would be ok to make this announcement EVER.
Musical Interlude
All of his numbers have gone south. He has been a legislative failure, a foreign-policy failure, an economic failure, a public opinion failure, a Constitutional failure, a failure in the eyes of our once-upon-a-time friends and allies. His first 100 days will wrap up as an epic and historic failure. How could it be otherwise, when you're the worst president in the history of our country.
Regarding immigration, and his failure there too - Pope Francis said it best - "What is built on the basis of force and not on the truth about the equal dignity of every human being, begins badly and will end badly."
Regarding that Kasper story: It never ceases to amaze me that Tr*mp and his lackeys--ostensibly responsible "leaders" whom we're expected to take seriously--continually get away with behavior for which I would have been severely punished at age five!