Two Americas
The recent moves by Republican state legislatures to outlaw abortion highlights America's increasingly pronounced red/blue divide
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
So I hope everyone has been having a good week and you’re enjoying what, I imagine for most of you, is a much-needed three-day weekend. It’s finally warm here in New York City, and I am pleased to announce that as I write this note … I am wearing shorts!
Next week I will be in Paris with my family for a week-long vacation. I will make every effort to post something while I’m there!
I have a few new pieces up today. The first is in the Daily Beast and asks the question: if nearly 4 million kids were plunged into poverty — practically overnight — would Americans care? It turns out the answer is “no.”
The second piece argues that Democrats are basically screwed for the midterm elections, so they might as well pass their domestic policy agenda because it’s the right thing to do.
The Politics of Roe v. Wade
There’s been a lot going on this week, but to my mind, there is no more important story in American politics today than the GOP’s ongoing assault on abortion rights.
This week, Oklahoma basically banned abortion altogether by making it a felony to perform the procedure in the state — even in cases of rape and incest. There is a narrow exception if a woman’s life is in danger.
On Wednesday, Republicans in Kentucky overrode a veto by Democratic Governor Steve Beshear of a bill banning abortion after 15 weeks. Florida enacted similar legislation the next day, making abortion illegal, even in cases of rape or incest. The Kentucky law also “mandates the creation of a new and expansive certification and monitoring system to track details of all abortions administered in the state and the physicians who provide them,” which, because of the prohibitive costs of compliance, will, in effect, end abortion access.
Texas still has on its books a convoluted law that bans abortion after six weeks. Though it’s not an official government prohibition, the law instead empowers individuals to sue anyone who participates in an abortion procedure, which has had the practical effect of preventing any abortions in the state.
The backdrop for these latest legislative maneuvers is that the Supreme Court will issue a ruling in the next few weeks or months on a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks. Most observers expect that, at the very least, the Court will uphold the 15-week ban — hence the laws in Florida and Kentucky that are, in effect, preparing their states for that likelihood.
While a 15-week ban would change Roe v. Wade, which currently limits abortion before 23 weeks, it would not necessarily have a huge immediate impact. The vast majority of abortions in America happen before 12 weeks. Indeed, it is ironic that out of the 59 countries that allow abortion on demand, America is one of only seven that allow them to take place after 20 weeks.
The problem, however, is that the Court could go a step further and overturn Roe v. Wade altogether. If they did so, it would give states the right to set their own rules — and in a place like Oklahoma, that means a total abortion ban.
But the Sooner State would not be alone. According to this helpful map produced by the folks at Vox, 22 states have abortion laws with near-total bans on their books.
In most of these states in orange, there would be no change. Abortion would be almost entirely illegal, and pro-choice advocates would have little hope of modifying these laws. In the states that have pre-Roe bans, the situation is a bit more complicated. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona are purple states. West Virginia is one of the reddest states in the country. In the first three, one can imagine the political fights over abortion will be incredibly fierce. Republicans would have the advantage in Arizona, where they control most of the state government and have already passed a 15-week ban. It would be the opposite in Michigan, as Democrats control the governor’s mansion and are already pushing to repeal the old pre-Roe law. Wisconsin would likely favor Republicans because of their control of the state legislature.
But in other states where there is no controlling legislation, there will likely be a political explosion. Republicans in places like Virginia or Pennsylvania will likely push for abortion bans, while Democrats will try to keep abortion legal. In places with 15-week bans, there could be a push for total bans. In Wisconsin, one of the most narrowly divided states in the country, the fight over abortion would be incredibly divisive.
There is, of course, a political context to all this. If the Court votes to overturn Roe, it will happen months before voters go to the polls. Could it have an impact on the midterm elections?
My initial assumption has long been “no.” There will be outraged voters in red states, but they will be outweighed by those who agree with the policy or are so tribalistic in their partisan views that it won’t impact what they do on Election Day. Blue state voters will be plenty outraged, but their votes won’t unseat Republicans. However, when you look at the issue on a state-by-state basis, it’s more complicated. There is the potential for abortion to play an outsized role in the midterm elections in certain states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but probably only if the Court goes so far as to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Two Americas
Still, no matter what the Court does, the dividing of America into two separate and unequal states will likely continue unabated.
The future of America is one America where abortion is legal and readily available. In the other America, abortion will be illegal, and women (overwhelmingly poor women) and their children will face even more significant obstacles to economic mobility and personal freedom. Women of greater means will be able to travel to states where abortion is legal. Indeed, one of the reasons Oklahoma passed its ban on abortions is that so many women were crossing the border from Texas to have the procedure done. While things will be bad, because of the availability of pills that can induce abortions, this will not look like pre-Roe, with millions of women forced to get back-alley procedures.
Of course, the divisions in America are not restricted to women’s reproductive health. In red-state America, because of new, so-called “Don’t Say Gay” laws, trans and gay kids will have to keep silent. Subsequently, there will likely be higher rates of depression and suicide among this cohort. In blue-state America, LGBT kids will be able to safely use the word “gay.” In blue-state America, there will be a robust safety net to help the poorest and most vulnerable Americans. In red-state America, meager social spending and lack of access to health care will keep more kids in poverty and lead to higher infant and maternal mortality rates. Economic growth will be weaker, poverty will be higher, and life expectancies will be shorter. That’s already happening now, but it almost certainly will worsen. In short, one America will be well off, and one will find itself in increasingly more perilous shape. Again, these divides are not new. It’s long been the case that living standards have been higher in states controlled by Democrats versus those run by Republicans. But, make no mistake, these national cleavages will get even bigger, and that which divides us as a nation will be far greater than that which unites us.
What’s Going On
Republicans are increasingly and brazenly accusing Democrats of being a pro-pedophilia political party.
There are now only three K-Marts left in America. I’m undecided if that’s a good or a bad thing.
Fiona Hill dishing on Donald Trump and Russia makes for quite a read.
Joe Manchin … kind of a jerk.
Steve Vladeck argues that John Roberts has lost control of the Supreme Court.
In Texas, child welfare workers are spending so much time investigating trans kids that children who are actually suffering abuse are being ignored.
Hell hath no fury like a white man who feels he is not fully appreciated.
The Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, sank yesterday after allegedly being hit by two Ukrainian missiles.
What To Watch
You need to be watching “Severance” on Apple TV and “The Dropout” on Hulu. Also, and this one surprised me, the “Pam and Tommy” show on Hulu is pretty good. You don’t need to watch the new version of “Death on the Nile.” Instead, catch the old one, only available on Criterion Collection.
Musical Interlude
This week was the 44th anniversary of this incendiary Grateful Dead show from Durham, North Carolina. The video of Jerry Garcia performing Townsend-esque windmills during “Truckin’” is worth the price of admission, but the whole show is a gem.
The US Blues is pretty great too. Watch for the part at the end where Jerry jumps about 3 inches off the ground. It’s astounding.
Whenever I write the song title “Truckin’,” I’m reminded of this legendary gag on the old David Letterman show.
The shadow docket may be what finally kills this grand experiment.