It has already been one hell of a week … and it’s only Wednesday morning. So much for 2021 being less insane than 2020.
I’ve long written that the Republican Party would continue to support Donald Trump until they didn’t. What that meant is that the GOP would stand with Trump until the day came when they decided it was no longer in their interest to do so. That day arrived on January 12, 2021 - around 5:30 PM.
Two events crystallized the crumbling of support among congressional Republicans for President Trump. First, came a blockbuster New York Times report that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, “has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that it will make it easier to purge him from the party.”
There is little doubt that this leak came directly from McConnell and was intended to send a very clear and purposeful signal to the White House that Trump’s time is up. It’s hard to imagine that McConnell leaked this information without a clear indication from his Senate GOP caucus that many them are on board with dislodging themselves and the party from Trump. And while it would be nice to believe that McConnell is doing this out of selfless regard for America, the clearer explanation is that he has concluded that Trump’s benefit to the GOP has ended. McConnell clearly blames the president for losing the Senate and he can’t be pleased about the steady stream of announcements from major corporate donors that they are cutting off campaign contributions to the Republican Party. He is now trying to get the Trump albatross off the GOP’s neck before it does even more damage to the party.
It’s also possible that McConnell is trying to coax Trump into leaving office voluntarily. Surely the Senate Majority Leader would prefer that the president resign, rather than have his members make a difficult, politically perilous vote to remove him. But if that is the case I don’t expect it to succeed. Knowing Trump’s ego I think he’d prefer being pushed out - thus allowing him to play the victim - than be forced to resign, which in the eyes of a narcissist would be seen as the ultimate sign of weakness. That means that Senate Republicans may be forced to cast a ballot, yea or nay, on Trump and whichever one they choose is going to bring with it serious political backlash.
In the Times story was another interesting tidbit about House Minority Leader, Kevin McCarthy. “McCarthy,” the paper said, “one of Mr. Trump’s most steadfast allies in Congress, has asked other Republicans whether he should call on Mr. Trump to resign in the aftermath of the riot at the Capitol last week.”
That suggested that House GOP support for Trump may have begun to erode and not long after the Times story broke, Liz Cheney, the number three Republican in the House, confirmed it. Cheney announced that she would be voting to impeach Trump on Wednesday. By doing so Cheney gave cover to other Republicans who are on the fence on the articles of impeachment to join her. It is expected that when the House votes today as many as 20 Republicans could join Democrats in supporting Trump’s impeachment. It’s not nearly enough but that any of them have abandoned the president in this manner would have been unimaginable a week ago.
There are also indications that when the articles of impeachment reach the Senate there may be enough GOP votes to convict Trump. While it will likely be too late to remove him from the White House a Senate conviction can lead to Trump being disqualified from ever holding federal office again.
But removing Trump will not solve the GOP’s long-term problem. Trump will not go gentle into that good night. Even after leaving the White House he will rail at the GOP members who abandoned him and I have little doubt he will keep the support of most congressional Republicans and of rank-and-file GOP voters. It’s quite possible, even likely that there will be a significant post-Trump divide between those who stuck with the president until the bitter end and those who did not.
The immediate question for Republicans is will Trumpist Republicans launch primary challenges against those senators or members of Congress viewed as not fully committed to the soon-to-be former president? That will be the clearest indication that the Trump split has the potential to do long-term damage to the party. Down the road, the bigger question is will rank-and-file Republicans punish the GOP for turning on the president or will much of this be forgotten by 2022? At this point, it’s simply too soon to tell how all this plays out. We can expect non-Trumpist Republicans to begin distancing themselves from the president and suggest that they never really supported him in the first place, while the true believers roll out a modern version of the “stabbed in the back” thesis. What we can say with greater certainty is that, in the short-term, the GOP has a rocky road ahead and that Trump has not finished damaging the party he helmed. For four years Republicans made their bed. Now they get to lie in it.
Oh and one more thing …
I’m all for Republicans distancing themselves from the president, but if they really want to be useful they would direct their message to Trump’s supporters and urge them to stand down. I am generally not the alarmist type but with growing reports that more insurrectionist attacks are being planned it is essential that Republicans speak with one voice, even those who continue to support the president, in urging his supporters to eschew any further violence.
Obviously it would be ideal if that message came from the president but we all know that’s not going to happen. The potential for greater mayhem and loss of life is very real. That so few Republicans are directly speaking to their constituents, and instead putting the burden on Democrats to calm the nation’s political tensions, is the surest indication of their abdication of political responsibility for the mess they helped create.
Photo Credit: The David Sheldrick Wildlife Trust