Welcome To The Shit Show
Former President Donald Trump is likely to be indicted soon and that's when the real fun starts.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to subscribe, you can sign up here.
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It’s Happening
Over the weekend, as you might have heard, we found out … some major political shit is about to go down.
With a Manhattan grand jury indictment likely but its timing unclear, Donald J. Trump sought to rally supporters to his side, declaring that he would be arrested on Tuesday and calling for protests.
Mr. Trump made the declaration on his site, Truth Social, at 7:26 a.m. on Saturday in a post that ended with, “THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE AND FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!”
… Mr. Trump is expected to be charged in connection with the hush money payment his former fixer and lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, made to the porn star Stormy Daniels, who claimed to have had an affair with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Cohen made the $130,000 payment to Ms. Daniels to bury her story of the affair.
The payment came in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, and Mr. Trump subsequently reimbursed Mr. Cohen. Prosecutors are expected to accuse Mr. Trump of overseeing the false recording of the reimbursements in his company’s internal records. The records falsely stated that the payments to Mr. Cohen were for “legal expenses.”
So what does this all mean?
First, we shouldn’t assume that an indictment of Trump is coming on Tuesday — or even at all. As we all know, truth-telling is not the former president’s strong point. Still, there is substantial evidence that an indictment could be imminent and if it doesn’t happen it would be genuinely shocking.
Second, the Manhattan DA’s case against Trump is hardly the strongest. As the Washington Post noted over the weekend:
Some legal experts, though, are scratching their heads about why this particular investigation might be the first one to result in Trump being indicted. They describe it as an unusual case, given the potential charges involved as well as the fact that prosecutors have repeatedly examined the long-established details but decided not to pursue charges against him.
The Post notes, “It is unlikely that any new facts or witnesses have emerged since Cohen first publicly discussed the Daniels payment in 2018, according to a person with knowledge of the case.”
Moreover, Cohen (who shares the same name as a brilliant writer) is a convicted felon and hardly the strongest or most credible prosecution witness. In addition, Bragg has received significant criticism for his refusal to bring cases against Trump. One of the prosecutors on an earlier Trump case, Mark Pomerantz, resigned from Bragg’s office last year. He first complained to the New York Times and then wrote a highly critical book about the DA’s reluctance to charge Trump. So it’s hard to ignore the possibility that Bragg feels he is under political pressure to move against the former president. Whatever the rationale for moving forward — and considering Trump’s other more obvious criminal acts — it’s strange that this case, which may amount to a misdemeanor, will likely be the first brought against a former US president.
Third, if Bragg moves forward, I suspect it will open the door for other prosecutors to issue indictments against Trump. It seems a matter of when, not if, prosecutors in Georgia indict the former president for trying to interfere in the 2020 election in their state. Federal indictments for Trump’s role in the January 6 insurrection, seeking to overturn the 2020 election, and classified material found at Mar-a-Lago could also be forthcoming.
Fourth, I know that we’ve become inured to the craziness of the Trump era, but an indictment of a former president is, as the current president famously once said, a big f***ing deal. Trump’s utterly irresponsible calls for public protests only heighten the potential for violence, which after January 6 cannot be discounted. But what really raises the temperature on this situation is that Trump is already a declared candidate for president. Moreover, he is the frontrunner to be the 2024 Republican nominee, which means he would likely face off against Biden if he wins his party nod. It’s one thing to charge a president with a crime — it’s quite another to indict the guy who is the key rival of the current White House occupant.
I don’t believe Democratic prosecutors are orchestrating these indictments purposely to hurt Trump. After all, facing off against Trump is not necessarily a possibility that scares Democrats (though I’d imagine in Bragg’s case, he’s not unaware of the political upside for him in going down this road). But I get why public perception would draw that conclusion … especially if irresponsible Republicans make that connection.
And, of course, that’s precisely what has happened.
Here Ohio Senator JD Vance blames the Jews … and the Blacks (Bragg is Black, Soros is, of course, Jews).
Here’s former Vice President Mike Pence (whose life Trump famously put in danger on January 6) accused the Manhattan DA of political prosecution without knowing the charges against Trump or the evidence underpinning it. For the GOP, any prosecution of Trump (like any impeachment) is inherently political, no matter the evidence. It’s hardly an exaggeration to suggest that they believe that Trump is above the law.
Here is New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu valuing the hurt feelings of Republican voters over the rule of law — and rather than condemning Trump, chastises Democrats for ignoring the politics of a potential criminal prosecution. Of course, if Democrats were to do that, they would be conducting a politically charged prosecution, which Pence and others tell us would be bad.
Lastly, Republicans have practically fallen over themselves in claiming that the prosecution of a former president would turn America into a Third World country. Let’s be clear: in many democracies, former political leaders have been charged with crimes and even imprisoned. Not holding accountable a former president for criminal acts is precisely what happens in a Third World nation. Ignoring Trump’s criminal acts would be a degradation of the most fundamental principle of American democracy — namely, that no man or woman is above the law.
Finally, we have this nugget from the spineless Speaker of the House
What better way to combat “an outrageous abuse of power” than by the House of Representatives engaging in an even more outrageous abuse of power by threatening a duly elected attorney general on a matter in which Congress has no authority and no business meddling?
Lastly, the statements from McCarthy, Pence and this one from Texas Congressman Chip Roy are why Trump is likely to benefit politically from an indictment.
Four days ago, Roy endorsed DeSantis for president. Now he's on social media not just defending Trump but depicting him as some sort of political martyr. Pence, who is running against Trump, said earlier this month that history would hold Trump accountable for his actions on January 6... just not legally accountable for his various criminal acts. Pence should be criticizing Trump, calling him a distraction, suggesting he should get out of the race, etc. Instead, he's taken multiple opportunities to defend him. The GOP response to these indictments makes Trump look like the victim of a politicized prosecution and allows him to suck up all the political oxygen in the GOP nomination fight. If your political opponents are defending you in such a way that it bolsters your support … you're winning. And even though Trump might be indicted this week, politically, he's winning — at least for now. The chances of a multiple indicted politician getting elected president are not impossible, but it's pretty damn unlikely. It's not just an impediment to winning the support of Republican voters.
Republicans Are Deeply Out Of Touch
I have a new piece up at the Daily Beast on how Ron DeSantis's maiden appearance on the 2024 campaign trail shows the degree to which the modern GOP is deeply out-of-touch with the American people. You can read the whole piece here, but this sums it up: In Iowa, DeSantis never mentioned the national economy, jobs, inflation, or health. Instead, he talked about Disney, critical race theory, railed against Dr. Anthony Fauci, cast doubt over the effectiveness of COVID vaccines, and bragged about sending migrants to Martha's Vineyard to teach a lesson to liberals.
But over the weekend, Nikki Haley made the argument even more persuasively than I could have.
In what universe are trans students competing in sports, the women’s issue of our time? Certainly not the one we reside in, where millions of women who have lost their reproductive rights are now a potent political force. Over the past six years, since Trump won the White House, women voters have dramatically shifted their support against the Republican Party and toward Democrats. The idea that they care about trans participation in sports or that it would cause them to move back to the GOP pretty much sums up the political bubble that Haley and her party call home.
What’s Going On
I’m going to have more to say soon about this blockbuster report in the New York Times on the alleged involvement of former Texas Governor John Connally and the Reagan campaign in pushing Iran to keep American hostages captive until after the 1980 election. But suffice it to say; I’m not buying it.
The right-wing COVID crazies strike again … this time at a public hospital in Sarasota.
Always read Ron Brownstein on American politics. Always.
Really smart piece by Fareed Zakaria on the growing rigidity of American foreign policy.
Not sure what else there is to say about the anniversary of the Iraq War that I didn’t say 12 years ago.
This story about a black family in Tennessee having their five children taken away from them after a traffic stop is absolutely enraging.
Musical Interlude/Today In Bob Dylan
I’ve always really enjoyed this version of the Verve classic “Bittersweet Symphony” mainly because it’s a good song, but also it looks like everyone present was having a lot of fun … and rock ‘n roll is supposed to be fun!