We're Running Out of Time
Democrats have 10 1/2 months to pass their policy agenda before they lose control in Washington. This opportunity may not come around again for quite some time.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
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For my Friday Zoom Cast, I’ll be joined by Jared Yates Sexton. We’re going to talk about the ongoing threats to American democracy and why he’s more concerned about an election coup in 2024 than I am. The latest piece in his substack newsletter, “Dispatches From a Collapsing State,” on Kyle Rittenhouse’s conservative media tour, is a must-read! Here’s a Zoom link, and as usual, we’ll be kicking things off at 12:30 on Friday.
The Clock Is Ticking
In 10 1/2 months from today, voters will go to the polls for the 2022 midterm elections. If history, polling, and the country's current mood are any guide, Democrats will almost certainly lose their narrow majority in the House of Representatives and may lose control of the evenly divided US Senate. If that happens, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s policy agenda will be dead in the water, with little hope of making it through a Republican-controlled Congress. Depending on the size of the GOP win, it may be a very long time until Democrats enjoy a governing trifecta again (control of the House, Senate, and White House). That means that the next 10 1/2 months are absolutely crucial if the country has any hope of shoring up our democratic institutions, fixing the social safety net, and preparing the country for the ravages of climate change. Democrats must act boldly or squander their policy and political opportunities.
That brings me, once again, to the senior senator from West Virginia, Joe Manchin. This week, Manchin once again played the role of turd in the punchbowl by signaling his continued refusal to be nailed down on the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better (BBB) bill, passed in the House earlier this year. Due to Manchin’s problems with the legislation, passage of the BBB will not occur before Christmas and may be pushed back to March, if it passes at all. While the signals still point to Manchin likely supporting the legislation, it’s also clear that — as was the case with the American Rescue Plan — he intends to take a pound of flesh from President Biden and his fellow Democrats. I assume Manchin has some political rationale for doing this, or perhaps he likes being a pain in the ass. Whatever the reason, it’s terrible politics that will likely not save Manchin’s Senate seat if he runs again in 2024 and won’t help a single Democrat running in 2022.
Of course, it’s not just on BBB where Manchin is throwing up pointless obstacles. He’s also made clear that he won’t suspend the filibuster to deal with the issue of voting rights because he wants it to be done in a bipartisan manner, which is akin to only trying to free the hostages by force if the armed kidnapper agrees. Manchin’s obstinance is being matched by his partner in crime, Kyrsten Sinema, who said on Wednesday that she will not agree to “weaken or eliminate the filibuster” to pass voting rights legislation, “which she supports.”
According to Sinema, why do the right thing when legislation could be “rescinded in a few years and replaced by a nationwide voter-ID law, nationwide restrictions on vote-by-mail or other voting restrictions currently passing in some states extended nationwide.” Not making good policy because something bad might happen in the future is illogical, self-defeating, and a recipe for political paralysis. Arguably, any legislation passed today could be reversed by the opposing party tomorrow. Confident political parties and politicians do what they think is best for the country and their constituents and make the case for it to voters. Manchin and Sinema, it seems, would prefer that Democrats remain in a defensive crouch, focused on what might happen, not what they have the power to make happen.
Be Bold Now or Lose The Chance Later
Political power in American politics is a finite resource — and it’s fleeting. Democrats have a very small window in which to fix a host of problems that have gone unaddressed for a generation. If that window closes, which it likely will in November 2022, it will not reopen any time soon. Democracy will remain in danger, climate change will go unaddressed, and America’s social safety net will remain torn and frayed. We know from past experience that Republicans have no intention of addressing these issues. On a more parochial level, Manchin and Sinema will lose much of their political power in the Senate as Congress becomes mired again in political paralysis, with a Democratic president and a GOP-controlled House.
Instead, Democrats could do the things they pledged to do on the campaign trail in 2018 and 2020 — and which the country needs. That begins, of course, with suspending the filibuster so that legislation passed in the House can get an up or down vote in the Senate. Taking that step would mean Democrats could pass voting rights legislation and end partisan gerrymandering, which would have the added advantage of giving Democratic candidates a much better chance of winning elections in 2022. If Democrats wanted to help their party over the long-term — and protect American democracy — they could then reform the Electoral Count Act and enact the Protect Our Democracy Act, both passed in the House. They could make Washington DC and Puerto Rico states, which would give much-needed representation to the citizens of both places and would solidify Democratic majorities in the Senate and possibly the House. Finally, they could add new justices to the Supreme Court, which would rebalance the Court after the power grabs orchestrated by Republicans over the past several years.
Per Sinema’s concerns, Republicans could certainly try to reverse these measures (though I’m pretty skeptical that the GOP would even try to turn back most of them) but let them try. It’s infinitely better to do what a political party claims to believe in then and take it to the voters — than to live in fear of what the other party could do. After all, what’s the point of gaining political power if you’re not going to use it?
What makes this situation even more frustrating for Democrats is that there is a broad consensus around many of these reforms. Countless Democrats have come in favor of changing the filibuster rules to pass voting rights legislation — and there is much broader support than ever before for pushing the envelope on Senate rules in order to get something done. Manchin and Sinema are the two biggest obstacles stopping this from happening.
I suppose Democrats may find some filibuster workaround on voting rights — and Senate Democrats are working with Manchin and Sinema to get them to agree to a change. But as for the rest of the wish list above, it’s little more than a pipe dream. Unless Manchin and Sinema can be convinced to do what’s best for their party and the country, Democrats will have blown their best opportunity to do what America needs. The clock is ticking, and time is quickly running out.
Omicron Is Here
Today is a rough day here in New York City. Events are being canceled left and right (including, quite likely, my youngest’s birthday party on Saturday). There is talk of schools being shut down, and everyone seems to be in a low-level panic about the Omicron wave that is clearly upon us — and exhausted about what might come next in our 21-month odyssey with COVID. Unfortunately, the speed with which this latest variant is infecting Americans — including the vaccinated — means that the rest of the country will be in New York’s shoes soon.
It’s not easy to find a silver lining on this one, but here it goes: most Americans are vaccinated. If you are vaccinated, you’re at little risk of getting seriously ill. Thankfully, omicron does not seem to be as deadly as the previous Delta variant, but more cases could mean more hospitalizations, which risks overrunning medical facilities. So take precautions, but don’t panic. If you’re not vaccinated or boosted, get on that now. I think Boston media critic Dan Kennedy gets it exactly right:
What’s Going On
This is one kick-ass obituary.
David Freedlander has the best take on New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio.
Who would have guessed that Urban Meyer would crash and burn in the NFL? Oh right, pretty much everyone.
Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt is a monster.
Greg Sargent has a suggestion for Joe Manchin.
Musical Interlude