This post first appeared last Thursday in the Boston Globe version of “Truth and Consequences.” I liked it so much that I’m reposting it here.
Lost in all of last Wednesday's mayhem was what happened on Tuesday night in Georgia. The voters of that state did more than just elect a 33-year old Jewish man and the Black pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church to the United States Senate — they transformed American politics. By just over 110,000 votes (as this newsletter goes to print), they have the expanded the realm of what President-elect Joe Biden and the likely new Democratic majority in the US Senate can accomplish. With 50 votes and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote, Democrats can ensure that Biden’s cabinet nominees, agency heads, and eventual judicial nominees are approved by the Senate. In the near term, they can bring to the Senate floor House-passed legislation increasing stimulus checks to $2,000 for every American.
Democrats can use the budget reconciliation process, which relies on a majority vote and cannot be filibustered, to push through their fiscal priorities. On the campaign trail, Biden pledged to increase taxes by $4 trillion over 10 years. Like the Trump tax cuts and the Bush tax cuts before them, that is something that can be done via reconciliation. That’s a major plus for Democrats because one element of the reconciliation process is that it can’t increase the deficit. Ideally, $4 trillion in new revenue can offset any new outlays.
Budget reconciliation can also be used to make changes to mandatory spending programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Democrats could feasibly lower the age for Medicare eligibility from 65 to 55. They could increase the rate at which the federal government matches Medicaid reimbursements, which would be a boon to state budgets. Democrats could even increase subsidies for Obamacare. As for that Supreme Court case dealing with Obamacare, Democrats could pass a one-page amendment removing the individual mandate from the legislation thus making the case moot. Spending priorities like infrastructure are more difficult, but not impossible to shoehorn through reconciliation. Addressing climate change would be tricky though not impossible. Policies like a carbon tax or new mandatory environmental spending could be established through more far-reaching efforts would probably be more difficult.
In addition, there is something called the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to undo any late-term rule changes put forward by a departing presidential administration. So all those environmental rules benefiting industry and further polluting America that were pushed by the Trump administration could be excised — and, like reconciliation, such efforts cannot be filibustered.
The harder part will come on issues like voting rights, immigration, and criminal justice reform. Major changes on these issues cannot be pushed through reconciliation. So if Senate Democrats try to pass House of Representative legislation expanding voting rights or making Washington, D.C., a state, Senate Republicans can block it — unless Democrats vote to scrap the filibuster.
Right now, that seems unlikely to happen, considering that several Senate Democrats, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia, have said they will not support an effort to get rid of the filibuster. But color me skeptical that Manchin will hold to that position if Republicans return to their brazen, filibustering ways. Manchin, et al., would, in effect, be handing all the political power in the Senate to minority leader Mitch McConnell. And when it comes to an issue like voting rights and, in particular, making Washington, D.C., a state, it’s not hard to imagine that moderate Democrats might be willing to bend the filibuster rules in order to allow an up-and-down vote.
After all, making D.C. a state and adding two Democratic seats to the Senate would ensure that Manchin and other wavering Democrats could remain in the majority for the foreseeable future. Arguably, there is no bigger priority for Democrats.
There are plenty of midway points on the filibuster other than keeping things the way they are or getting rid of it altogether. For example, senators could be required to do a “talking filibuster” and thus forced to actually block legislation by staying on the floor of the Senate. Eventually, those kinds of filibusters end and the Senate can move forward with a 50-50 vote. Another possibility would be to lower the number of votes needed to cut off debate and end a filibuster to 52 or 53. Then Democrats would only need to peel away a few Republicans like Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, or Lisa Murkowski to move forward with legislation.
As Biden’s term goes forward, Manchin and others will need to ask themselves if they are willing to let Democratic legislation die in the Senate because of an attachment to antiquated Senate rules. Will they truly be willing to accomplish little in Washington, during a time of legitimate national crisis? I have my doubts.
But to be sure, none of this would be possible without the good people of Georgia. In casting their lots with two Senate Democratic candidates, Georgia has made it possible to break the gridlock on Capitol Hill and actually accomplish something for the American people.