What Is Nikki Haley Doing?
She keeps losing races to Donald Trump but has given no indication that she plans to exit the Republican presidential race. Does she have a plan?
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Palmetto State Musings
To the surprise of no one, Donald Trump won another Republican primary - this time in South Carolina, where he trounced Nikki Haley by 20 points.
I think there are two ways to look at this outcome.
It’s a big win for Donald Trump. South Carolina is Nikki Haley’s home state. She was the former governor. Still, Trump beat her by 20 points. Trump has now won competitive races in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina by double digits. He didn’t compete in Nevada, and Haley finished second to “none of the above.” As Lisa Lerer put it in the New York Times, “The Republican nominating contest isn’t a competition. It’s a coronation.”
It’s a big loss for Donald Trump. Donald Trump is, for all intents and purposes, an incumbent. He has near-universal name recognition. He already held the presidency and, hell, most Republicans think he won in 2020. Winning 59% of the vote, even in your opponent’s home state, is not all that impressive, especially when it’s increasingly clear that he is the huge favorite to win the nomination. This result comes on the heels of Trump winning 54% of the vote in New Hampshire and vote in Iowa. The fact that this many GOP voters are opposed to his nomination should be a blinking red light for the Trump campaign and Republicans, in general, that they have a serious political problem. Yet, I see little indication that Republicans are aware or concerned about it. The fact that Democrats are anxiety-ridden over an incumbent president who is dominating primaries and Republicans are seemingly blase about the divisions within their party is a great and humorous example of the key difference in the psychological makeup of the two parties.
One of the interesting exit poll results from South Carolina is that approximately 21 percent of those voting said they wouldn’t support Trump in the general election (since I’m assuming that few Trump voters expressed this view, we’re probably talking about slightly more than half of Haley’s backers). There’s an important caveat here: independents can vote in the South Carolina GOP primary. Nonetheless, if 20 percent of South Carolina Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are balking at backing Trump in November, that’s a significant number. (We saw nearly identical exit poll results in New Hampshire and Iowa). And while we can assume that most of those voters will likely come around if even half or a third stick to their word, we’re talking about 7-10% of the GOP electorate.
That likely won’t cost Trump South Carolina, which he won by 11 points in 2020. But as a high-floor, low-ceiling candidate, Trump has few votes to spare. The potential for nearly 10 percent of the GOP electorate to stay home or vote for Biden would almost certainly be enough to cost him the election. One of the interesting results to keep an eye on in future primaries and caucuses is whether we keep seeing 20% of GOP voters saying they’re out on Trump.
What’s Your Plan Nikki?
So, one of the big mistakes I made last year was confidently stating that I wouldn't have much to say about Nikki Haley during the Republican presidential campaign.
Not only has Haley outlasted everyone except Trump, but she is only the second woman to win delegates in a Republican primary or caucus (can you guess the first? Answer is below).
But she’s now lost every GOP primary and caucus by double digits. There’s little reason to believe she will win a race any time soon. So, why is she not dropping out?
I was thinking about this Saturday night, and then Seth Masket’s newsletter popped into my inbox (if you’re not a subscriber, you should be), and he so clearly captured my thoughts that I’m posting them here in full:
My read continues to be that she’s not running for 2028, she’s not running for VP… she’s running for this nomination this year. And her logic for doing that is the same as it was for entering the contest in the first place. Trump, while having a great deal of support among party voters and leaders, faces an enormous amount of legal and financial threats right now. He already owes nearly half a billion dollars in a series of recent civil judgments, and it’s not clear where he’s going to find that. And he still faces 91 felony counts. I think he’ll stay in the race, but it would not be the nuttiest thing for him to decide that he could fight this more easily as a private citizen. And if he does, Haley would be the one candidate in the field with a nationwide organization ready to capitalize on the moment. At any rate, her donors are apparently still willing to back her, and there’s little down side for her to continue doing this (you know, except for the regular death threats she and her family occasionally receive).
(I must say reading this was an odd moment for me. I’ve been thinking about this Haley issue for a couple of days, trying to deduce her thinking, and just as I had a theory, I read Seth’s take, which was virtually identical).
The problem for Haley is that she’s likely burned her bridges with MAGA world, which likely rules out a successful 2028 presidential bid. Also, she hasn’t held elected office since 2017.
I suspect if Trump loses in 2024 that, four years from now … he will run again. And if he’s in jail or gone to the great Mar-a-Lago in the sky, the most likely 2028 nominee will be the candidate who most closely replicates Trump’s appeal — and that won’t be Nikki Haley. Haley is a very conservative Republican, but she’s not a MAGA candidate, and I’m not sure she has the predisposition ever to be one. I have no personal insight here, but I wonder if, at some point in the last several weeks, Haley realized that her desire to be president is limited by a few remaining morsels of personal integrity and in a party dominated by Trumpism and a never-ending race to the political bottom, there are limits to how far she is willing/able to go.
There is also the possibility that Trump gets trounced in November, and she is holding out hope that Republicans say, "Nikki Haley was right all along; maybe we should give her a shot in 2028.” I doubt that’s happening, but it’s also not a crazy notion.
But the most likely explanation for Haley staying in the race is that she has concluded that her best hope of ever becoming president is winning the nomination this year.
I don’t think that’s likely to happen. But it’s not unreasonable for her to believe that if Trump shuffles off the mortal coil or decides to pack it in or is sentenced to a lengthy prison term, Republicans might decide they need a Plan B, and she could fit the bill.
Well, to be honest, it’s kind of unreasonable but certainly not impossible.
Also, as Seth points out, Haley is not lacking in funds, so she can stick it out for a few more weeks, and, hey, you never know, maybe the tide will turn against Trump. Again, it’s highly unlikely, but it might be the closest Haley ever gets to the Republican nomination, so if you think about it, Haley staying in the race makes sense.
Trivia Question Answer
Carly Fiorina was the first woman to win delegates in a Republican primary or caucus. Yes, I was surprised, too.
Musical Interlude
The sole reason I’m including this Prince song in the musical interlude is because it has the name “Nikki” in the title. That’s it. I am not making any direct or indirect connection between the protagonist in the song and Nikki Haley — and neither should you.
I found another song with “Nikki” in the title … and it’s not bad.
A favorite song from my youth … and it’s close enough.
I’m reaching here, but it’s the White Stripes and this song rocks.
"The fact that Democrats are anxiety-ridden over an incumbent president who is dominating primaries and Republicans are seemingly blase about the divisions within their party is a great and humorous example of the key difference in the psychological makeup of the two parties."
I agree and I think the media helps amplify this preexisting psychological makeup. We're hearing that if Biden steps aside and is replaced, that, even though some pundits are urging this, Democrats will lose (true, I think.) But they are not only NOT saying this if Trump steps aside, but they're acting like a Nikki Haley ticket would be a huge winner, apparently not having learned their lesson from 2008 when they gushed about McCain's choice of Palin, claiming he would now corral all the disgruntled Hillary voters because a woman is a woman and they're all the same, right? I saw firsthand that all the Hillary backers I knew were outraged by this thinking and were coming up to me (an Obama supporter from the get-go) and saying "I was going to hold my nose and vote for Obama but now I want to get involved in his campaign." So no, Haley with her far right positions (as much as you can figure out what her eely positions are) isn't going to have wide appeal to women who aren't already hardcore Republicans. Especially now with reproductive rights on the line and ... what was that she said about IVF again? Who can figure it out!
Her other big problem is WHY Trump voters support Trump. I had a personal conversation with a Trump supporter that I think reflects a large number of them: she said she likes Trump (while disagreeing with him on many issues) because "he's strong." i.e. he's a white male. People have fretted over why evangelicals support someone so clearly ungodly. It's because Christianity has little to do with what they believe. Their core belief is authoritarian patriarchy — white male supremacy. If you support Trump because he promises to put white men above everyone else, you will stay home rather than vote for Haley. Part of being in the Trump "cult" is that that support isn't transferable. It's all about the cult leader.
I guessed Carly. What do I win? I couldn’t think of another name… is there another woman who even came close?