I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
If money is tight or you’re already up to eyeballs in subscriptions, here’s another idea — share this article. Email it to a friend (or even an enemy). Post it on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. Text or email it to your wife, husband, mother, father, brother, sister, or even your creepy second cousin in Djibouti. Word of mouth is often the best way to build support for a creative endeavor, so if everyone here sends it to just one person … it would be much appreciated!
Last week, I wrote a long post looking at the enduring mystery of Joe Biden’s lousy poll numbers … and today, I will start trying to explain what I think is going on.
Before I get to that, I wanted to say a few words about the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision last to bar Donald Trump from the 2024 presidential primary ballot in their state.
Colorado’s top court ruled on Tuesday that former President Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding office again because he engaged in insurrection with his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol, an explosive ruling that is likely to put the basic contours of the 2024 election in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court.
The Colorado Supreme Court was the first in the nation to find that Section 3 of the 14th Amendment — which disqualifies people who engage in insurrection against the Constitution after taking an oath to support it — applies to Mr. Trump, an argument that his opponents have been making around the country.
The ruling directs the Colorado secretary of state to exclude Mr. Trump’s name from the state’s Republican primary ballot. It does not address the general election … Mr. Trump’s campaign said immediately that it would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.
This is an interesting decision, and I understand how the Colorado Supreme Court reached its conclusion … but there is simply no way that the US Supreme Court will let it stand.
I get that we are a country of laws, and the notion that Trump violated the 14th Amendment by engaging in an insurrection might be constitutionally correct, but we are also a democracy. And the idea that a handful of judges would have the power to tell the 70 to 75 million Americans who intend to vote for Donald Trump that they cannot doesn’t feel very democratic. Also, as Jonathan Chait argues, I’m not sure the argument that Trump engaged in an insurrection is all that airtight. But, whatever my personal views, it’s largely a moot point. I would be stunned beyond words if the High Court didn’t overturn this decision — and, to be honest, I think that would be the correct call.
Hierarchy Of Needs
I asked readers to send me their thoughts, and I received some very thoughtful replies. The first came from reader Ed Shankle.
Regarding Biden’s polling numbers, I think while more people have jobs and are spending freely, their hierarchy of needs (safety, food security and housing, particularly the last two) aren’t being addressed by the robust economy due to high interest rates and inflation. Some of the money being spend on discretionary items might be otherwise directed to home loans if housing prices and interest rates were lower. Food isn’t discretionary, but quality and quantity purchases would be improved if costs were lower and accessibility improved.
I think there is a lot to this, particularly Ed’s point on housing. Right now, with interest rates so high, it is incredibly difficult to buy and sell an apartment or house (arguably, it’s also hard to move because a lack of liquidity in the housing market means rents have gone up - though that’s been happening for a few years). One has to imagine that it impacts how people feel about the economy, even if they have a good job and plenty of income.
When you factor in higher prices on food and other essential items, it contributes to the sense that the economy is underperforming, even if consumers are still spending money on luxury items. From my experience, I ordered dinner for one of my kids the other night from Chipotle (I usually don’t do that, but she’s 11, she loves it, and I was completely exhausted and too tired to argue). It was $32 for a burrito bowl … for fast food! That’s insane, and when you see something like that, I understand how it contributes to a feeling that the economy is in the shitter … even though I had been at a water park in New Jersey for my ten-year-old’s birthday on Sunday and spent far more. Vibes matter, and when basic needs (i.e., the items we buy most frequently) feel overpriced, it’s not hard to see how that influences popular views about the economy. — and, in turn, the president’s performance.
It’s A Vibes Thing
By chance, I ran into an old friend last week, Bradley Honan, who runs the Honan Strategy Group, a small polling and political consulting firm. I asked him his thoughts on what’s happening with Biden’s polls. Here’s what he said:
Two major factors drive presidential approval ratings – first how the Chief Executive Office of America is performing his or her duties as President – and on that scale, Biden has strong legislative successes to his name. But the second variable is a reflection about how America feels about itself – and the current economic, political, and social dislocation, plus two or three significant global conflicts are creating a dark cloud over how people are feeling about our current trajectory. Add to that, that America is at a peak point of political polarization which places an artificial ceiling on how realistically high any President’s numbers can go – Democrat or Republican.
I want to address the last point first because it’s crucially important. Due to increased political polarization, Democrats and Republicans are unwilling to give a president of the other party credit for … much of anything. So, the days when a president enjoyed 50 or 60 percent approval ratings are long gone. Presidents can assume that while they might receive the support of 80% plus of their party, they will likely get little to no credit from the other party.
Not only are presidential favorability ratings lower than before, but presidents don’t get credit when things in the country are good — even when the economy is strong.
I wrote about this in July, and the point remains valid today.
Beginning near the tail end of the Obama administration, economic sentiment and presidential approval started to move in different directions — and were increasingly influenced by partisan attitudes. A solid economic rebound did not lead to significantly higher approval ratings for Obama.
For Trump, however, the gap was even wider. In early 2019, 75 percent of Republicans rated the economy as excellent or good — only 32 percent of Democrats agreed. Indeed, in March 2019, Gallup recorded the highest-ever approval rating for Trump’s handling of the economy, at 56%. Yet, his approval rating was 43% — which was about the same level it had been throughout his presidency. In short, Trump received no personal boost from the electorate’s rosy views about the state of the economy.
To put it succinctly, Republicans were unwilling to give Obama credit for an improving economy … and Democrats were disinclined to reward Trump for the longest economic expansion in American history.
Honan’s second point on vibes is even more insightful. “The current economic, political, and social dislocation, plus two or three significant global conflicts, are creating a dark cloud over how people feel about our current trajectory.”
This is my pet theory on Biden’s lousy poll numbers — and it reminds me of this clip from the 1992 presidential debate.
A woman asks how “the national debt has personally affected each of your lives.” Bush is clearly befuddled because truth be told, it’s a silly question. He thinks the woman literally means the “national debt” when, in reality, that’s merely a stand-in for the economy as a whole. After Bush fumbles around for a few minutes, Bill Clinton puts on his best “I feel your pain” face and talks about how the lousy Bush economy has made life more difficult for the people he knows in his home state of Arkansas.
The question wasn’t about the debt … it was about the state of the economy and, in turn, the country.
I suspect that much of the negative polling for Biden is far more about vibes and frustration with all elements of American society — inflation, political division, overseas conflicts that are playing out on American streets, etc. When people feel negatively about the state of the country, no matter the reason, it’s reflected in the president’s approval rating and, in turn, even their views about the economy.
Will The Kids Be Alright?
This gets to the last point: the polls may not reflect voter intentions. I turn now to another comment from a reader. John Lima writes:
I have 2 progressive 20-30-year-old old daughters who loathe Biden and constantly criticize Dems. When confronted with a Biden vs Trump ‘24 matchup, they gladly choose Biden. I believe current polls underestimate Biden's support and that Biden will beat Trump by 5 points in 24.
From your mouth to god’s ear, John. But I think there’s a lot to this. When asked about Biden, the state of the economy, or even their intentions for 2024, voters can register their frustration. But does that mean they will vote for Trump or stay home in 2024? Color me skeptical.
Two other data points from this week jumped out to me. According to the latest NYT/Siena College poll, Biden is losing to Trump among registered voters by two points — but leading him by the same margin among likely voters. Biden is performing poorly among younger voters, and they are especially outraged by his handling of the war in Gaza:
Voters between 18 and 29 years old, traditionally a heavily Democratic demographic, jump out. Nearly three quarters of them disapprove of the way Mr. Biden is handling the conflict in Gaza. And among registered voters, they say they would vote for Mr. Trump by 49 percent to 43 percent — in July, those young voters backed Mr. Biden by 10 percentage points.
“I don’t want to vote for someone who is not aligned with my own personal values, as Biden has shown he is not when it comes to Gaza,” said Colin Lohner, a 27-year-old software engineer in San Francisco. But, he asked, “Do I vote for Biden or do I not vote at all? That’s really difficult, because if I don’t vote for Biden, I open up the possibility that Trump will win, and I really do not want that.”
It’s very easy to say in December 2023 that you won’t vote for Biden … it’s a lot tougher in November 2024 when the possibility of another Trump term in office is looming. I suspect that Mr. Lohner, like John Lima’s two kids, will end up voting for Biden.
There’s one last point from a fascinating New York magazine article on the confidence about 2024 inside the Biden campaign.
One Biden aide pointed me to a recent poll conducted by a Democratic group showing that despite Trump’s huge primary lead, only a fifth of Americans are convinced that he will be nominated. A second, related tenet is that while the political class has long since dialed into 2024’s apocalyptic stakes, most American minds are simply elsewhere. “The average swing voter thinks about politics four minutes a week,” Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, told me in September, “and they’re not waking up for another 12 months.”
Only one in five Americans believe that Trump will be the GOP nominee. What!?! If that’s true, imagine the wake-up call they will get in March 2024 if Trump has sewn up the GOP nod. In short, there’s a lot of time between now and next November.
So that’s it for today. I received several other responses to my question about Biden’s poll numbers, revolving around Biden’s age, polling error, White House messaging, and the influence of Fox News and right-wing media. I’ll write up my thoughts on those in a post later this week.
For now … enjoy the music! (This is a fun one for me because the last tune, U2’s “Bad,” is one of my all-time favorite songs. Also, I get to post two songs by artists that my kids actually like — Taylor Swift and Steve Lacy)
Its his age. He is not a young 81 and is in no condition to lead your country! Trump will defeat him in 2024 and then you and your country will face hate and violence every day. Trump must be stopped at all costs. Can't you see that? I wish he was dead! Wouldn't you go back and kill Hitler if you could???
Great column. Touches on lots of points on the polling issue. My own belief is that polling methods are outdated and skew towards an older more conservative set of respondents.
On the younger crowd, my son is a member of the Campus Republicans at his college and finds no acceptable candidate in either party. His argument against Biden is age. His argument against all prominent Republicans is that they are unsuitable for the presidency.