Why Trump's Government Overhaul Will Likely Fail

Taking a blowtorch to the federal government is a lot easier said than done.

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One of the recurring warnings sounded during the 2024 presidential campaign was that, unlike the first time Trump held office, the people around him for his second run knew what they were doing. That meant they would be much more effective at wreaking havoc and imposing their will within the federal government.

Days into the new administration, Paul Rosenzweig at the Atlantic makes this exact argument:

The first 10 days of Donald Trump’s presidency have seen such an onslaught of executive orders and implementing actions that Steve Bannon’s strategy to “flood the zone with shit” seems apt. But that characterization is incomplete, and it obscures a more frightening truth: The Trump administration’s actions have been not just voluminous but efficient and effective. Though Trump himself may not appreciate the depth of detail that has gone into these early days, his allies do appear to understand what they are doing, and they seem to have his unquestioning consent to do whatever they like.

…. Those who oppose Trump’s actions do not have an incompetent opponent; Trump’s team is savvy and has been planning for this for years. They came ready.

As a former federal prosecutor, Rosenzweig is mainly focused on Trump’s efforts to undermine the Justice Department — and there is reason to fear what his minions can do there. But, in general, I think the assumptions of Trump Administration competence are vastly overestimates. (Also, when you’re using the words “coldhearted efficiency at the core of Trump’s new presidency” to describe the first 11 days of chaos and uncertainty of Trump 2.0, I think you need to reexamine your thesis).

It’s not just that Trump and his people don’t understand how the federal government works; it’s that they believe they can come in and disrupt an entrenched bureaucracy with bluster and threats.

Along the margins they might have some success, but they are too stupid, too impatient, too doctrinaire in their thinking, too grandiose in their ambitions, and too off-putting to achieve significant results. And they are led by a president who is immune to learning new information, trimming his sails or accepting the idea that just because he says something should be done doesn’t mean it will happen.

The recent imbroglio over the OMB's implementation of a 90-day funding freeze is a great example. The Trump team might have had years to prepare, but they still had no clue what they were doing or the ultimate consequences of trying to turn off the federal spending spigot. The result was a public relations disaster that blew up in their face and from which there was a quick retreat.

Moreover, many of Trump’s early efforts at taking a wrecking ball to the government are susceptible to legal challenge. Others may run afoul of civil service protections and collective bargaining agreements with government employee unions.

I spoke with a friend yesterday who works at a non-cabinet agency. He told me that his agency has a couple dozen political appointees and several thousand civil service staff. The idea that a small number of political appointees will drive radical change in an agency with thousands of employees and reams of institutional knowledge seems fanciful at best. And that’s even assuming that Trump will quickly have a team in place.