Why We Can't Have Nice Things

It is time for Biden supporters to get concerned? Also, why Joe Biden gets no credit for getting things done. Also, a banging musical interlude

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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The Struggle Is Real

I wrote a piece for the Daily Beast this week about what it’s like to be named Michael Cohen when the other Michael Cohen is testifying in Donald Trump’s New York City trial.

If there is one good thing about having the same name as Donald Trump’s former fixer, it is that I can confidently assert that I will likely never be the worst “Michael Cohen.”

Other than that, working as a political columnist and sharing a name with a convicted felon—who previously worked for Donald Trump, spent time in federal prison, and, according to a recent article in The Washington Post, is universally unliked—has been less than optimal.

Not Great, Bob

The New York Times latest swing state poll has more bad news for Joe Biden.

I’ll give the usual caveats: the election is six months away, it’s one poll (other recent national polling has Biden narrowly ahead), some of these numbers feel awfully hinky (especially Biden down 12 in Nevada), the 2024 campaign hasn’t really begun, and Biden has time to turn things around (plus a significant financial advantage), and among likely voters, Biden is ahead in Michigan, and narrowly down in Wisconsin and Pennslyvania (if Biden wins those three states and loses the other swing states he still gets reelected).

But if you’re a Biden supporter and not a little concerned, you’re whistling past the graveyard. I remain mystified by the president's continued underperformance in polling, particularly against an opponent like Trump, and I continue to believe that Democrats will come home in the end and support for third-party candidates will decline (as it always does). But then again, we’ve seen these lousy poll numbers for months. Biden’s persistent underperformance with young and minority voters is getting harder to ignore. The evidence that he is not getting through to these voters has been obvious for months if not years (though in Biden’s favor, he is more than holding his own among white and suburban voters). Maybe a broad swath of the country has given up on Biden and won’t vote for him in November.

To be clear, I’m not convinced that’s the case, and I can still make the argument for why Biden is a narrow favorite and is likely to win (he has more money than Trump; abortion is a true ace in the hole; Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes is more manageable than his opponent; Trump is making no effort to broaden his base, and his ceiling remains low, etc).

Maybe this race breaks to Biden after the conventions, and he wins handily. Maybe he squeaks out a narrow victory … or maybe young people stay home; minority voters move just enough toward Trump, people have forgotten how bad Trump’s presidency was, decide that Biden is too old, and go with the alternative. But anyone who tells you they feel confident that Biden will win in November is deluding themselves because scenario 3 is hardly outside the realm of possibility. Indeed, if the election were held today it feels like the most likely scenario (of course, the election isn’t held today, which is why you probably shouldn’t be panicking about all this).

Tribe Above All Else

You know the old saying that a photograph is worth a thousand words? Well, sometimes, a poll has the same effect. Or maybe because I’m a political nerd, I think this result from a recent Politico-Morning Consult poll is fascinating — and deserves a further explanation.