I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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Quick housekeeping note: I’ll be hosting a Zoom Chat at 12:30 tomorrow since there are a few political matters to discuss! President Biden’s solo press conference this evening (which I’m about to watch) will be of particular interest. See ya then!
Also, I’ve been traveling this week, so I haven’t had time to do a full newsletter. However, I know many of you have questions about what’s happening with the Democratic presidential ticket, so I’ll do my best here to address the most salient issues—and those that some of you raised in the comments.
The Die Is Cast
As many of you know, I hate making predictions, but with a gun to my head, I don’t think Biden will survive as the Democratic nominee. If you’d asked me Tueday night, I would have said the opposite. Congress returned to Washington; members of the influential Congressional Black Caucus spoke out forcefully in support of Biden (as well as prominent liberals like AOC), and the talk of Biden withdrawing from the ticket receded.
But in the last 24-36 hours, the tide has definitely shifted, partly because of panic among congressional Democrats that Biden would remain at the head of the ticket. Today, several key House Democrats — particularly in those competitive districts — called for Biden to withdraw. Vermont’s Peter Welch became the first Democratic Senator to push for Biden’s departure. There was also a significant revolt from the donor crowd with an op-ed in the New York Times by actor and prodigious Democratic fundraiser George Clooney calling on Biden to drop out of the race. The backlash to the closing of ranks around the president is a really bad sign. It suggests that many Democrats are unwilling to go gentle into that good night.
The Democratic leadership has begun taking a different line with Biden. Rather than trying to pressure him, they are using the “kill him with kindness” strategy. Take, for example, former VP nominee and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine’s comments yesterday, “I have complete confidence that Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing for the country. And he's going to make that decision. He's never disappointed me.“ It seems some Democrats have concluded that the more they publicly pressure Biden, the more likely he is to dig in his heels. I’m not sure this will work, but it feels like a thoughtful strategy. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise if we find out later it was coordinated with those in Biden’s inner circle (indeed, the NYT is reporting today that some of Biden’s advisors are looking for ways to convince him to withdraw).
I remain largely unconvinced that Biden can’t win the election in November, but I haven’t talked to anyone in the past few days who expresses even a whiff of optimism about his chances. It’s not a consensus, but I think it’s safe to say that the dominant view within the Democratic Party is that the party would be better off if Biden were not the standard bearer in November. As I wrote last week, it’s all about balancing risks, and I think right now, the riskier side is riding with Biden.
Could Biden have survived if Democrats had closed ranks around him immediately after the debate? A new report from Northeastern University suggests that his poor debate performance had almost no impact on voter preference. Biden’s numbers didn’t begin to tank until Democrats began engaging in a circular firing squad.
But, at this point, it’s neither here nor there: Democrats DID freak out, the media DID report on it (in large part because Democrats didn’t take my advice), and here we are. There’s no point crying over it now — and to be sure, it’s far from clear that even if Democrats rallied behind Biden, concerns about his age wouldn’t have tanked his poll numbers. The only concern for Democrats is whether the party’s nominee can defeat Trump in November. That’s it. Nothing else matters.
The Harris Option
As I’ve noted a few times, I’m not interested in entertaining any political scenario in which Kamala Harris is not the replacement for Biden at the head of the Democratic ticket. If Biden drops out, he will almost certainly endorse his Veep, and no prominent Democrat will seriously challenge her. Even if you want to make the case that there are better options for Democrats (and I don’t think there are at this late stage), it’s not happening. It’s Biden or Harris. That’s it.
I’ve seen a few people argue that Biden should resign and make Harris president. I’m not sure I agree. First, I don’t think it would make much of a difference. Second, it seems like a bad idea to have Harris focused on the campaign while being asked to take over the presidency. Let Biden handle the White House. Harris can handle the campaign.
In the comments this week, someone mentioned that Harris could fall victim to the Hillary factor this election cycle (or, in layperson’s terms, the fact that there’s a great deal of misogyny in America. My problem with this argument is that a lot has changed since 2016 -- above all, college-educated women have decisively moved toward the Democratic Party. So, while there are undoubtedly some Americans who won't vote for a female president, it's less of a liability than it was eight years ago, and, if anything, an all-women ticket could have a catalyzing effect on female voters.
It seems increasingly likely that Donald Trump will choose a man to be his running mate (the odds-on favorite appears to be Ohio Senator JD Vance; god help us). In my view, the prospect of two men at the head of the GOP ticket strengthens the case for a Harris-Whitmer pairing. The contrast between a young ticket with two energetic, attractive, and successful women and Trump and a MAGA-zombie like Vance is too good an opportunity to pass up for Democrats.
I’ll add that PA Governor Josh Shapiro would be a great choice, too, but picking Whitmer as a running mate is the kind of bold move that will flip the script for Democrats. Plus, two women on the ticket would give Dems the advantage of representing both continuity and change. I suspect Harris is a bit too cautious to go this route, but if she does, it has real potential.
What’s Going On
Julian Zelizer agrees that a Harris-Whitmer ticket is the way to go.
Interesting long read on what Israel must do to save itself.
Donald Trump denied any knowledge of the controversial Project 2025 program, which would remake the federal government in a conservative, authoritarian light. Oops.
One interesting wrinkle in the post-debate polling is that Trump doesn’t seem to be getting a significant bump in the polls. It seems that some Biden-leaning Democrats have shifted to third-party candidates or undecided.
Musical Interlude
One of the things that most impresses me with Biden's inability to be successful for 4 more years is his total misjudgment of his own abilities to do well in the debate with Trump.
Joe just called President Zelenskyy President Putin. I don’t think this lasts much longer.