Would the White House Rather Face DeSantis Than Trump in 2024?
As hard to believe as it might seem ... it kinda, sorta, looks that way.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to subscribe, you can sign up here.
One of the things I try to do at Truth and Consequences is decode the daily political news coverage for you and explain the story behind the story when it comes to political news. It’s why, as I’ve mentioned before, when a major story leaks, often the most interesting part is not the information itself but the question of who leaked it and why?
That brings me to what I think is one of the most interesting political stories I’ve read in some time — a Bloomberg News report from last week that claims that Biden White House is more concerned about a DeSantis presidential candidacy in 2024 than a third bid for Trump.
Democrats are unfazed, even giddy about a possible 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But the prospect of facing upstart Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is prompting whispers of angst within Democratic circles.
… Democrats worry that DeSantis, who presides over a large, diverse and former swing state, could appeal to possible Biden voters, those who would otherwise lean Republican, but were repelled by Trump’s baggage, the advisers and strategists said.
Biden allies privately worry that DeSantis’s record could appeal to the same set of independent, female or suburban voters who Biden needs to court to win. Though many also argue DeSantis is not tested nationally and could fumble in the GOP primary, with voters or on the debate stage against other Republicans.
There’s a general rule of thumb when you read an article where campaign aides fret about facing off against a particular opponent — they’re lying. More often than not, when they are telling a political reporter that they are “privately worrying” about a specific candidate, they are trying to make that person seem more daunting … because it’s precisely the candidate they want to run against.
So when I read this Bloomberg article, my bullshit meter started loudly buzzing. The idea, as noted above, that the White House is concerned about losing suburban, female voters to DeSantis seems laughable. I’ll grant that Trump would probably fare worse with this portion of the electorate than DeSantis. But I seriously doubt that a culture warrior with the charisma and charm of a schoolbus fire will win over voters who have, for three consecutive election cycles, turned their back on the Republican Party.
So the argument confused the hell out of me — because if I’m reading this as cynically as I think it’s intended, it would suggest that the White House would prefer to run against DeSantis next year. That doesn’t seem possible. But upon further reflection … maybe it makes sense.
1) First of all, it’s important to understand the context of a piece like this. The co-author is Nancy Cook. She’s been on the White House beat for a while. If she quotes “Biden allies,” I assume that the people talking to her are as she describes them. In speaking privately to Cook, a year before voters go to the polls, these Biden aides are trying to reach a particular audience — and it’s not Republican voters. It’s Republican donors (that the leak went to Bloomberg, which is primarily read by those who work in business and finance, is perhaps not accidental).
Ultimately, the shape of the GOP field will be determined by who has the finances to compete. We know Trump and DeSantis have plenty of money, but other Republicans are presently beating the bushes for campaign funds. If the message coming out of the White House is “we know we can beat Trump, but we’re afraid of DeSantis,” that could encourage donors to support his candidacy and ignore the Nikki Haleys, Tim Scotts, and Mike Pompeos, of the world.
2) Why is this interesting? Because the general political assumption has been that a crowded primary field helps Trump and hurts DeSantis. I’ve written about this a few times, so I won’t revisit the argument too deeply now. But the bottom line is that Trump has a solid base of GOP support (around 35 to 40 percent). The more crowded the GOP primary field, the more likely the anti-Trump vote gets split among several candidates, giving Trump a significant advantage in a GOP nominating system dominated by winner-take-all primaries and caucuses. But building up DeSantis as a threat to Biden and, theoretically, drying up financial support for other Republicans would increase the likelihood of a two-person race between Trump and DeSantis. Recent polling has suggested that DeSantis is usually ahead in head-to-head contests between the two men. It’s in the multi-person polls where Trump has the advantage.
3) So does that mean the White House would rather face Trump than DeSantis? Not necessarily. Another explanation might be that they’d prefer to run against Trump or DeSantis — and no one else. Perhaps they’re more worried about a fresh face like Haley or Scott, who could have appeal with suburban female voters. Trump will never win this group over, and DeSantis comes across so poorly to non-Republicans that they are, perhaps, not all that concerned about his ability to make inroads with them. So from this perspective, the White House would like to narrow the field to the two candidates who they think they’ve got the best chance of beating in 2024 — and that’s Trump or DeSantis.
4) Then again, maybe it’s possible that the White House wants Biden to face DeSantis because they think he’s an easier candidate to beat. Again, this seems pretty hard to imagine, but Trump has a relatively solid base of support, and there are likely some voters who will come out for him, but no other Republican candidate. I doubt that’s enough to win, but it creates enough uncertainty that the White House may prefer DeSantis, who likely wouldn’t be able to reach the occasional, Trump-supporting segment of the electorate.
5) But perhaps there’s another consideration: that DeSantis is worse for the GOP as a whole. Again, this seems crazy, especially considering that Republicans have underperformed in the last three elections, and it’s largely the fault of Trump. But hear me out. If the GOP race is between DeSantis and Trump, and the Florida Governor wins the nomination, how do you think the former president will handle it? Is he going to act magnanimously and offer DeSantis his full-throated endorsement? Is he going to their two hands in a show of unity at the 2024 Republican National Convention? Of course not. He will throw a temper tantrum, whine about a stolen election, and quite possibly do everything he can to undermine DeSantis’s chances of winning the presidency. From the White House’s perspective, that would be great!
DeSantis would lose, and if Trump convinces enough of his supporters to stay home, then maybe the Democrats keep the Senate and win back the House. That’s a long shot, and even I’m not so sure I buy that explanation — because it would mean a presidential reelection campaign preferring the candidate who would likely do the most down-ballot damage (DeSantis) vs. the candidate they are likeliest to defeat (Trump). But then again, if Trump withholds his support from DeSantis, then the Florida Governor might be the weaker general election candidate. And if Biden wants to have a successful second term, maximizing his chances of having a Democratic-controlled Congress increases those odds.
But maybe it’s just as simple as the White House wanting Trump and DeSantis to go mana-a-mano on the campaign trail, leaving both men too battered and bloodied to win the general election. That’s not always an effective strategy (long, drawn-out primary campaigns can just as easily help a candidate as hurt them), but it makes sense in this case. If Trump emerges as the winner, he’s already a longshot to beat Biden. If DeSantis prevails … see my point above about Trump acting like a sore loser.
6) Now, this is the part of the newsletter where you might stop and stay, “Michael, aren’t you making a shit-ton of inferences into one Bloomberg article?”
And you’d be right.
But the Bloomberg piece also points out something I haven’t paid as much attention to.
DeSantis is a near daily fixture in Democratic National Committee attack emails, slamming his positions and policy moves. Biden advisers and allies are seeking to call into question the governor’s leadership, putting the two camps on a collision course over hot-button issues like abortion, taxes and education.
Recently, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in an especially fiery statement, called the DeSantis administration’s rejection of a high school honors course in African American studies “incomprehensible.”
Perhaps the White House is simply trying to soften up a potential 2024 rival. But voters aren’t paying close attention to the next presidential election. Aside from donors, it’s just political junkies -- and reporters. Perhaps the DNC and White House focus on DeSantis is meant to build up the notion — in the minds of political media — that he is the main threat to Biden’s reelection. Doing so might convince them to spend less time focusing on the collection of single-digit also-rans, who are also seeking the GOP’s presidential nod in 2024.
7) Now, I could be completely wrong about all this. I’ll acknowledge that this is complete speculation on my part and I might be engaged in some major motivated reasoning. Maybe the Biden folks truly fear DeSantis (when I asked a few sources around the White House, they quickly dismissed the notion — though, of course, they could be lying too). Maybe they are boosting DeSantis because they think it will raise Trump’s ire. But it’s not as if Trump needs additional reasons to attack DeSantis.
But one thing we’ve seen from Biden people over the years is that they don’t leak, they don’t talk out of turn, and I seriously doubt they’d be telling any reporter they’re concerned about DeSantis if they actually were.
Keep in mind this is a weird time in the presidential race. It’s the proverbial shadow campaign when candidates are jockeying for media and donor attention. Lots of folks are deciding whether they want to run or not. The White House will try to influence the GOP decision-making to benefit Biden. As strange as it sounds, they seem to be trying to boost DeSantis and narrow the field. The even crazier thing is that it might be the president’s best path to reelection.
What’s Going On
Last week I wrote that the Trump campaign was happy for Nikki Haley to get into the presidential race because a) they don’t see her as a threat and b) they prefer to face off against a crowded primary field. Today, the Daily Beast confirmed my assumption.
Meanwhile in the “free state of Florida,” an Orlando bar’s liquor license could be revoked because it hosted a drag queen show.
Nate Cohen is not sure if Donald Trump is way up … or way down.
Nearly 13 years after the passage of Obamacare, Mississippi is still refusing to expand Medicaid coverage to its poorest citizens …
… this is happening even though state officials privately recognize the benefits of expanding the health care program. But hey, Republicans wouldn’t be Republicans if they were standing up to the major domestic legislative achievement of the guy who sat in the Oval Office two presidents ago.
Musical Interlude
I love Cracker’s cover of this song