You're So Vain ... I'll Bet You Think This War Is About You
If Russia invades Ukraine it won't be because of something the United States did or didn't do. Not everything is about us.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
American Narcissism
The Russian/Ukraine border is more than 5,000 miles away from the continental United States, but make no mistake, everything happening there — the military buildup, the war of words, the potential for conflict … it’s all about the United States.
Sure, Russia seized the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014, and yes, Russia has been supporting an insurgency in Eastern Ukraine since that time, and fine if you want to nitpick, the current round of tensions began a year ago. But there’s still absolutely no question that none of this would be happening if the US hadn’t withdrawn its combat troops from Afghanistan five months ago.
It was that show of weakness and lack of resolve by President Joe Biden that, more than any other factor, is what led us to the brink of war today. And the lesson from all this is that the US can never retreat from a conflict or reprioritize its national security interests because doing so will embolden America’s enemies. Even worse, it will erode the confidence of our allies, as well as freedom-loving peoples across the globe. If America steps back an inch, the international order cannot survive. And if you don’t believe me, just ask this guy.
I know that some people like to argue that Ukraine really isn’t all that important to the vital national interests of the United States. If you really want to split hairs here you could point out that Ukraine is not one of the 30 members of the NATO alliance, like Germany, the United Kingdom, North Macedonia, and Montenegro, and thus America has no treaty commitment to defend Ukraine’s borders from attack, but that’s just defeatism and appeasement. As Kyiv goes, so goes the world.
If Putin gets away with attacking Ukraine, he will soon try to swallow up the rest of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, even though he’s never attacked a NATO country in the past. You know what happens when freedom-loving people don’t show resolve. That’s right: Hitler. The West will look divided and impotent. Even worse, if the world’s democracies lack the political will to stop Putin, the rules-based international order will collapse. We will revert to spheres of global influence, unbridled military and economic competition, and ultimately, world war. Only if the US remains forthright in defending non-allied countries, with whom it has no formal treaty commitments, like Ukraine, and risks war with nuclear-armed powers can the world remain stable and peaceful.
Look, this isn’t just about Russia. It’s about China. If Biden isn’t tough enough with Putin, the Chinese will notice, and war with Taiwan will be a question of if not when. I know naysayers and isolationists will argue China has wanted to reunify Taiwan with the mainland for 70 years, and after US retreat from Vietnam in the 1970s, Beirut in the 80s, Somalia in the 90s, and Iraq in the 2010s, China didn’t seize on American retrenchment to invade the island. You can wave all the Pentagon reports you want that show China has neither the capability nor the resources to orchestrate a cross-strait invasion, but this time is different. If Biden doesn’t stand tall against Putin, China will definitely conclude that invading Taiwan is a good idea, even though technically they can’t do it. The Ukraine crisis is a crucial test of American global power, and Biden is at risk of failing it.
Now let me be clear: I’m not saying the US should fight a war with Russia over Ukraine. That’s a crazy idea, and I’m deeply offended that anyone would suggest my constant reference to worst-case scenarios means I think the US and its Western Allies should go to war. Oh no. Instead, the United States should put crippling sanctions on Russia — just like the crippling sanctions that the US put on Russia after its seizure and annexation of Crimea in 2014. Of course, the weak-kneed will say that those sanctions harmed Russia’s economy but didn’t dissuade Vladimir Putin from continuing to meddle in Ukraine’s affairs. But what other types of arguments would you expect from the wobbly. The fact is, the combination of sanctions and resolve has (almost) never failed to persuade dictators. And look, if sanctions against Russia don’t work, we’ll sanction Putin himself. And then we’ll sanction his mistress, then his masseuse, then his cleaning woman — sanctions as far as the eye can see. Standing up to bullies and dictators is simply too important.
I know what the little Chamberlains are going to say: that Russia and Ukraine share long-standing cultural bonds, Russians consider Ukraine the birthplace of their country, and Moscow has long valued a sphere of influence and buffer along its Eastern border. And I guess it is “historically accurate” to point out that the deposing of a pro-Russian Ukrainian president in 2014, known as the Maiden Revolution, and the succession of pro-Western leaders in Kyiv fundamentally changed the relationship between Russia and Ukraine. But, whatever. Ultimately, this crisis — like every other crisis in the world — is about the United States and its actions. If the United States had not gone back on its pledge— made 25 years ago — that it wouldn’t expand NATO to Russia’s borders, none of this would be happening today.
The fact that the Ukraine-Russia relationship fundamentally changed in 2014 — and the historical and cultural links between the two countries — is entirely secondary to Russian fears about NATO expansion. If the US would just make clear that Ukraine is never becoming a member of NATO even though, yes, I know, no one really expects that to happen, that would be enough to avoid war. After all, when has the US ever given its word that it would do something on the international stage and then changed its mind? What possible reason would Russia have to doubt us? Our word is stronger than oak.
It’s Not Our Fault
Ok, you get the idea.
To sum up, not every international crisis is about America. Sometimes countries act in their perceived national security interests, and while they may factor in what America’s response will be, there is usually another set of considerations at play. This includes domestic and regional politics, leader personality, and historical and cultural connections etc. Putin’s beef with Ukraine is fundamentally about Ukraine, and while US actions — like NATO expansion — have no doubt impacted his decision-making, the man does have agency.
In addition, while Putin is fully aware that the United States will likely impose sanctions on Russia if he invades Ukraine, that’s a risk he appears willing to take. If he does go to war, it’s because he’s concluded that the upside of invading Ukraine more than outweighs whatever the United States and the West can do to punish him. This perspective runs counter to the particular narcissism of American foreign policy observers, who consistently view the world through a US-centric lens. Still, the fact is, there is very little the United States can do to stop Putin, short of going to war with Russia. Ultimately, Putin cares more about Ukraine than we do — just as the North Vietnamese and Vietcong cared more about South Vietnam and just as the Taliban cared more about Afghanistan than we did. Both conflicts offer valuable but perennially forgotten lessons about the limits of American power.
After all, if the United States truly cared about the future of Ukraine, it would have pushed its NATO allies to extend NATO membership to Kyiv because doing so would likely deter a Russian invasion. But while successive presidential administrations kept the door open to NATO membership, none made it a reality because all of them concluded — rightly or wrongly — that Ukraine wasn’t a vital national security interest worthy of protection under America’s nuclear umbrella. That Russia is now threatening Ukraine doesn’t change that viewpoint. If anything, it reinforces why America and its NATO Allies made that decision — because no one wants to get into a shooting war with a nuclear-armed power over the future of Ukraine. This is why China might be watching what the US does in Ukraine, but it understands that the US commitment to Taiwan’s defense is strategically ambiguous. The US might or might not defend Taiwan. The same cannot be said about Ukraine.
If Russia invades Ukraine, it will be a tragedy. Ukrainians will die needlessly. Moscow will be slapped with international sanctions that will punish not Putin but rather innocent Russians. But as for the international order: it will survive. China will not be emboldened to invade Taiwan, the Western alliance will not crumble, and NATO countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region will not be at greater risk. And yes, America will be fine. Sometimes bad things happen in the world, and there’s simply nothing the United States can do to stop it.
Musical Interlude
Kind of an obvious choice today …
Perhaps if the U.S. didn't run roughshod on its promises about NATO expansion to Russia, then Putin wouldn't be so anxious to demonstrate that he is not a puppet to the war-mongers in the U.S.