Historically, they shouldn't but the data points suggesting otherwise are getting more and more difficult to ignore.
I think Biden's biggest problem is young people want someone who's talks like an activist, and attempts a whole bunch of presidential orders to accomplish things when faced with problems. Biden isn't like that, and doesn't do that. Here's the deal: Biden can't do much about abortion, Biden can't do much about guns, Biden can't do much about inflation. The bully pulpit is a useful tool for some things, but not for intractable problems which Congress needs to actually get its act together and fix through legislation.
What Biden SHOULD be doing is setting actual priorities. Biden has picked some legislative bills (which is good), but when Build Back Better failed he should have gone up and said "the new focus of my administration is X; I want Congress to pass Y bill (which we've been working on lawmaker Z) and focusing on X will help us tackle inflation & the economy." That message would help: focus Congress on a problem, promise a tangible deliverable, and then execute.