Is This End For Donald Trump?
That and a few other questions about how to process the end of Trump's second impeachment trial.
Yesterday, to the surprise of no one, Donald Trump was acquitted of high crimes and misdemeanors in his Senate impeachment trial. The only unexpected outcome was that seven Republican senators demonstrated actual political integrity and voted with all 50 Democrats to convict the former president. So what happened and what comes next? I have a few thoughts!
Did Democrats screw up by not pushing for witness testimony?
On Saturday morning, the lead House impeachment manager, Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland stunned everyone (including Senate Democrats) when he proposed calling Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington as a witness in the impeachment trial. Rep. Herrera Beutler had issued a public statement recounting a phone conversation between Trump and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy on the day of the riot in which McCarthy asked Trump “to publicly and forcefully call off the riot.” Trump refused and told McCarthy that it was actually antifa that was responsible for violence. Then Trump complained that the insurrectionists were more upset about the outcome of the election than the House Minority Leader. The incident is emblematic of Trump’s sociopathic indifference to the plight of congressional Republicans and Vice President Pence who were under direct assault by the mob.
Democrats succeeded in getting a majority of the Senate to go along with a call for witnesses. Then within an hour they caved on the issue and agreed to only introduce Rep. Herrera Beutler’s statement into the congressional record in return for not going through the rigamarole of calling witnesses, deposing them, and having them testify.
Liberal social media was up in arms about the decision and their anger was understandable. Here was the chance to fully investigate Trump’s actions during the riot and expose, with witness testimony, the breadth of his crimes. But, calling witnesses would have meant dragging out the trial for days or even weeks and it’s highly unlikely that it would have convinced any more Senate Republicans to vote differently. As much as I was personally disappointed to not see witnesses called it was clear from a narrow political perspective that most voters aren’t paying attention to the Senate trial, have already made up their minds about Trump’s guilt or innocence, and Democrats would be much better off focusing on COVD relief and President Biden’s legislative agenda than impeachment. The political success of Democrats is going to be measured by how quickly they show tangible results to the American people. That’s it. It was painful to see, but Democrats made the right political move.
Was the trial worth it?
The impeachment trial ended the way many assumed it would - craven and cowardly Senate Republicans refused to take the political risk of convicting Trump and he was acquitted. But seven Republicans crossed the aisle and with 57 Senators voting to convict Trump the historical verdict is clear: a majority of the US Senate has repudiated the former president and made clear that he violated his oath of office. Trump may have been found not guilty, but he most certainly was not exonerated. The case presented by the House managers is now part of the historical record and serves as compelling and overwhelming evidence of the president’s crimes.
When the trial I began I thought Romney, Collins, and Murkowski were the Republican senators most likely to convict the former president with Ben Sasse of Nebraska and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania as possible guilty votes. All five voted against Trump and were joined, unexpectedly, by Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Richard Burr of North Carolina. I would assume that the latter two were a direct result of the stellar case put on by House managers.
Finally, Trump’s impeachment trial was about more than the former president - it offers an historical verdict on the Republican Party. There is no longer any question (as if there ever was) about the fundamentally anti-democratic nature of the modern GOP and its lack of fealty to the Constitution and the foundations of American democracy. By impeaching Trump and holding the trial, Democrats have forced the majority of Senate Republicans to choose which side they are on. It’s up to the voters now to ensure they are held accountable.
What game is Mitch McConnell playing?
One of the more fascinating aspects of the impeachment trial were the actions of Mitch McConnell. The then-Senate Majority Leader had initially suggested he was open to conviction and in a January Senate floor speech attacked the president - and tried to distance the Senate Republican caucus from him. Once it was clear that his fellow Republicans were not on board with conviction, McConnell retreated to the default GOP position of refusing to hold Trump accountable for his actions.
Still, after voting to acquit Trump the Senate Minority Leader delivered a blistering tirade against the former president. He said Trump was practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day” and guilty of a “disgraceful dereliction of duty” as president. He made clear that the House managers had proved their case. Of course, these words ring hollow, since McConnell voted to acquit the former president. In explaining his vote he made the bogus argument that presidents cannot be impeached once they’ve left office, which is stupefyingly hypocritical considering that McConnell personally delayed the start of the trial until after Trump’s term had ended. But McConnell didn’t need to eviscerate and repudiate the former president. That he did suggests he still thinks Republicans need to distance themselves from Trump if he is to become majority leader again (which is the only thing McConnell truly cares about).
What was most interesting, however, about McConnell’s speech was his statement that Trump can be prosecuted for crimes he committed in office. This is a classic McConnell bad faith argument: Trump should be held responsible for his actions, just not by me or my Republican colleagues.
But don’t sleep on what McConnell said. It’s clear that he views Trump as a political albatross around the party and almost certainly blames him for costing Republicans control the Senate. I have no doubt that McConnell wants Trump to be prosecuted and if it happens I don’t expect him to make a major fuss - though he’ll be happy to benefit politically from it. The ideal outcome for McConnell is accountability meted out by others. Let Democrats fall on their sword after he refused to do it. But McConnell wants Trump gone and he wants the party’s association with him to end. That tells me that the former president’s future role in the party will not be as decisive as many seem to believe.
Have we heard the last from Donald Trump?
This brings me to my final takeaway from the impeachment trial. I strongly suspect that from a political perspective this is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. In the month since he left office, Trump has continued to dominate the news cycle - and that was largely because of impeachment. Now that the trial is over, Trump remains in exile in Florida, and he lacks the bully pulpit or a social media platform to speak to his followers, I suspect they begin to move on. Out of sight; out of mind.
Trump may want to plot his political resurrection, but he remains deeply unpopular and his biggest priority, going forward, will be dealing with likely state or federal prosecutions in New York, Georgia, and Washington DC. I don’t think it’s by chance that I haven’t heard Trump’s voice in nearly a month. He hasn’t been on Fox or OANN or conservative radio, I assume, because his lawyers are fearful that he will further incriminate himself.
It’s possible that Trump holds political rallies to target his political enemies, but they aren’t going to receive the same coverage they got before. After all, he’s no longer president. Trumpism will almost certainly live on within the GOP and there will be plenty of Republican politicians who will wrap themselves in its mantle. But there are tantalizing signs that some Republicans are heading in a different direction. The aforementioned Ben Sasse is likely running for president. He voted to convict Trump. Former US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley is giving interviews to Politico, trying to distance herself from the former president. The 2024 presidential wannabes who tied themselves closest to Trump - Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ted Cruz of Texas are facing a political backlash - while plenty of others, like Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina refused to go along, for example, with Trump’s efforts to decertify the election results. I fully expect the next four years to be a fight over the role of Trumpism in the GOP. That there is even disagreement on this, as opposed to the slavish-like deference to Trump that defined Republican behavior over the past four years is a major shift. In the end, I think that even Trump’s most loyal voters will identify some new grievance, some new Democrat to demonize, and some new cause to motivate them. It seems more likely than not, it won’t be Donald Trump.
Your former colleague, Globe Columnist Renée Graham, nails Trump and his followers very well in her Feb. 11, 2021 conclusion: "When windows shattered at the Capitol and legislators ran for their lives, the insurrectionists on Trump’s orders made it clear where they stand — for violence and sedition, and against a democracy they want to steal from the rest of us." White citizens who hope to perpetuate Trump's racist rhetoric reject his 60+ court cases that were lost, love his endless lies, and are blinded by the 7 million more citizens who elected Joe Biden. A modicum of compassion for families ravaged by Covid-19 last year leading up to the Nov. 3 election would have very likely left him in power for 4 more years. Thankfully, compassion and empathy lined up resoundingly on the side of reason. Joe Biden won! Trump shot himself in both feet time and again. Now he can rant and rave for a thousand days while Biden does what he can to respect the constitution and restore the underpinnings of our national institutions and our international commitment to representative democracy.
I guess I don't understand how such criminal, con is able to be able to pretend to be running again. After running coup against our country breaking every security their is to protect our country list goes on. If this guy able to run , rest of Rep in power are able to keep their seats not go to jail for their crimes. Leading coup to hold power . That my opinion show how corrupt the whole system is at every level of gov