I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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Yesterday, Ron DeSantis ended his presidential bid … and the country rejoiced. Ok, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but DeSantis’s demise was welcomed by millions who were happy to see the Florida Governor get his public comeuppance.
DeSantis’s political demise should hardly come as a surprise. As I wrote more than 18 months ago, DeSantis is “a smug and charmless jerk — and smug and charmless jerks who struggle to cover up the fact that they are smug and charmless jerks don’t usually get elected president.”
DeSantis was a uniquely bad presidential candidate. He was uncomfortable talking about himself and seemed to dislike meeting voters and shaking hands. It isn’t just that DeSantis is charmless; it is that he lacks charisma and warmth.
Beyond his personal failings, he made a host of tactical errors. He waited far too long to jump in the race, blunting the momentum he got from his double-digit reelection win in 2022. He refused to talk to non-conservative media, and he mistakenly believed that passing a set of mean-spirited culture war laws in Florida targeting LGBTQ+ kids, banning books, going after Disney, and preventing discussions of racism in the state’s schools would translate into political success. Moreover, he tried to make his alleged “success” in handling COVID in Florida the calling card of his campaign … even though by 2023, most Americans, even conservatives, had moved on. (What’s perhaps most gratifying about DeSantis’s campaign is that his anti-WOKE strategy of bullying the most vulnerable communities in America fell flat on its face). DeSantis was so immersed in the conservative echo chamber — and so terminally online — that he spent much of his campaign trying to win over the nuttiest members of the Republican Party and far too little time coming up with a coherent rationale as to why he should be president.
But ultimately, there’s a more straightforward reason why DeSantis fared so poorly in his bid for the White House … and again, I turn to what I wrote in the Summer of 2022.
Whatever one might think of DeSantis’s recent political rise, the 2024 Republican nomination is likely Donald Trump’s to lose. He is still the frontrunner in national polls of Republican voters (in head-to-head polls against DeSantis, Trump is regularly ahead by 30 points). And it’s not the Florida governor to whom Republicans across the country are prostrating themselves — it’s Trump.
This is the bottom line — the GOP is Trump’s party, and DeSantis never really had a chance.
Some commentators have pointed out that Trump’s poll numbers, vis-a-vis DeSantis, began to improve in March after his first indictment in New York City — and this was the decisive moment when the tide turned against DeSantis. But I don’t buy that argument. The tide was always going to turn against DeSantis because Trump is simply more popular among rank-and-file Republican voters. You can see this in how DeSantis ran — bear-hugging Trump and refusing to attack his key rival until the end of the campaign. Even on Ukraine military funding, he went pro-Putin, refusing to put any distance between himself and the former president. He offered GOP voters a choice: Trump or a Trump-like figure, who supposedly was more electable. No one should be surprised that when faced with those options, Republicans picked the real thing rather than a pale imitation.
If you’re going to run against a candidate who is, by and large, an incumbent, you need to create a contrast and a compelling argument as to why you’d be a better Republican nominee. DeSantis never did that. But ultimately, it’s hard to say it would have mattered. The GOP is the party of Trump, and DeSantis, like every Republican who has challenged him, was destined to fail.
One More Thing …
In announcing his departure from the race, DeSantis endorsed Trump. While it’s easy to criticize him for throwing his support behind a candidate who regularly mocked and demeaned him … it’s the smart political play. DeSantis is 45 years old, and he is term-limited in Florida. Republicans hold both Florida Senate seats. If he has any political future, the best hope is another presidential run in 2028, assuming Trump loses to Biden. Staying on Trump’s good side is the only play he has.
Having said that, I’m not convinced that he can win in 2028. He’s angered Trump supporters, and his charisma problems are not going away. In running such a terrible campaign, he’s largely become a punchline, which is a death knell for most politicians. The problems we saw in his 2024 bid will not go away, and unless DeSantis can get a full personality transplant, I’m bearish on his political future. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if his status as a national politician ended yesterday.
But one thing is certain: DeSantis will have no political future if he doesn’t keep Trump happy. If this GOP nomination fight has told us anything, it is that as long as Trump is on the national stage, the Republican Party will remain firmly in his grasp.
Granite State Prediction (ish)
If the polls are to be believed, Trump will beat Nikki Haley in New Hampshire by double digits tomorrow. I’m not making a prediction about that race, but I will say this: win or lose in New Hampshire, Trump will be the GOP nominee. Even if Haley somehow ekes out a win, she will likely lose in South Carolina and all the other upcoming primaries. Stick a fork in the GOP race … it’s over.
GO LIONS!!!
The Lions have won more playoff games in the last eight days than in the previous 66 years!
Musical Interlude
I've never understood the argument that DeSantis has no charisma but Trump supposedly does. For me and all my anti-Trump friends, Trump has never had an ounce of charisma or charm.
The one quality that I'll concede to Trump is that he seems to be at ease in front of a crowd. Is this what people mean when they give Trump credit for his public presence?
(I agree with Anastasia, I assumed you meant DeSantis in that section).
Is this correct: "Trump was so immersed in the conservative echo chamber — and so terminally online — that he spent much of his campaign trying to win over the nuttiest members of the Republican Party and far too little time coming up with a coherent rationale as to why he should be president." it seems odd. Did you mean to say "DeSantis"?