Smarter Than You Think

I was wrong to sell the American electorate short. Ron DeSantis is still a lousy presidential candidate. The pollsters nailed it and thankfully Kari Lake lost.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.

Usually, I’m uncomfortable tooting my own horn … but hey, this newsletter relies on paid subscriptions. I wrote this in August:

Over the past several months, virtually everything I’ve written on the midterms has come with the caveat that things usually improve for the out-party (the GOP) as we get closer to the election. So, in other words, Democrats are doing well now, but it may not last. That’s what the historical trends tell us. Yet, it’s hard for me to see any basis for that assumption.

• Republicans are underperforming, across the board, in special elections.

• The GOP is hobbled by a host of lousy and extreme candidates, many of whom are in key swing states (Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia).

• The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has changed the nation’s political dynamics and served as a motivating tool for Democratic voters.

• Democrats are doing best among voters who, traditionally, have been most likely to turn out in midterm elections.

• As I wrote earlier this month, new voter registration numbers are heavily Democratic and female.

• Trump is deeply unpopular, and the more he is in the news, the more it motivates Democratic votes, as was the case in 2018 and 2020.

… if the current trend lines continue, the Democrats will have a reasonable chance come November. Of course, it’s always dangerous to ignore history and say, “this time is different,” but honestly, this time feels different, and there’s no point in denying it any longer.

Now it’s true that I wavered as we got closer to the election, but as was the case in August, I followed what the data told me. As we got closer to Election Day, the data suggested Republicans were improving in the generic congressional ballot. Still, I feel pretty good that my initial instincts on the midterms were essentially correct.

Not So Dumb, After All

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a cri de couer that “average political discourse in this country is not an Algonquin Fucking Round Table.” It’s worth revisiting that judgment after the midterms. While I stick by my argument that the vast majority of the electorate voted along expected partisan lines, swing voters certainly seemed to lean toward Democrats — and in a way that suggests they approached this election with far more intellectual rigor than I assumed.

I wrote about this for the Daily Beast and the tone and tenor of state and local election — by and large, competence won out. Or, to put it differently, “partisanship was no match for experience and know-how—even if it meant (voters) splitting their ticket between Democrats and Republicans.” We saw this everywhere. All but one incumbent governor handily won reelection (a byproduct, I would argue, of the positive marks voters gave them for the handling of the COVID pandemic). In places where Republicans nominated extremist candidates (and it was only Republicans who did this) like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Maryland — they all lost.

In addition, we saw a ton of split-ticket outcomes. In Kansas, voters overwhelmingly gave Senator Jerry Moran another six years while reelecting Democratic governor Laura Kelly. Governor Chris Sununu handily won reelection in New Hampshire, but many voters crossed the political aisle to support Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan over MAGA-focused Republican Don Bolduc. In Ohio, Republican Governor Mike DeWine was rewarded by voters while the GOP Senate candidate, JD Vance, did 9.5 points worse than his GOP ticket mate (though he still won). In an era of intense polarization, voters showed that they care about candidate quality and will not simply vote the party line. It’s always a positive sign for democracy when being a conspiracy-addled nutter diminishes your chances of winning an election.

Nailed It!

Friend of the newsletter Elliott Morris wrote a smart piece arguing the pollsters got the 2022 election right. He makes a few crucial points. First, traditional pollsters (those with a track record and who are open about their methodology) did pretty well. Second, GOP-leaning pollsters like Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Remington, Wick, etc., did quite poorly. One of the reasons why I remained bullish on John Fetterman’s chances in Pennsylvania — even as some polls showed Dr. Oz ahead — is that those polls were, by and large, red hot garbage. The good pollsters, i.e., the ones who use live interviewers, continued to show Fetterman ahead.

Lastly, since many pundits wrongly predicted a red wave, one of the responses I’ve seen bandied about is that reporters should spend more time talking to voters and less time paying attention to polls. Don’t get me wrong: reporting trips and listening to voters are very important. I miss that I haven’t been able to do it as much as I used to. But reading and understanding polling data remains the best way to understand the mood of the American electorate. No reporter can talk to enough individual voters to reach critical mass or surpass the seductive nature of anecdote. Even with all its faults, public opinion polling is still the best tool in the political reporter toolbox.

Had reporters looked closely at the data — and considered, for example, the partisan lean of some of the schlock pollsters who were so ubiquitous this cycle — they would have concluded that this was a tough election to predict. But there is always an inclination to take a stand, and no pundit wants to say, “I don’t know.” But as I keep arguing, those in the political punditry business should be honest about what we don’t know — and avoid simply parroting the conventional wisdom.

Why I’m Not Sold on Ron DeSantis Part 2

Since last week, when Ron Desantis won reelection by a whopping 1.5 million vote margin — and Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates fell short — the Florida Governor has quickly become one of the frontrunners for the 2024 Republican nomination. But, as I wrote in my MSNBC column this week, DeSantis didn’t do much better than Trump on Election Day.