I don't disagree with any of your arguments in favor of Kamala's campaign, I just don't come to the same conclusion. Yes: Kamala is liked more than Trump. Hillary Clinton was also liked more than Trump, that did not stop Trump from winning that election. Yes, Trump is running a horrible campaign (Donald Trump is a horrible candidate): this did not stop Trump from winning in 2016 AND nearly winning in 2020. Hillary Clinton also led all of the polls heading into 2016 too.
But more importantly, Kamala is NOT more liked than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were before Election Day in 2016 and 2020. Kamala's lead in the polls is NOT stronger than either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden's were in 2016 and 2020. In fact, both are smaller. Yes, Kamala is rebuilding the coalition that won Biden the White House in 2020: but Biden barely won in 2020. In short, while I could see the argument for the race tilting towards Kamala: there's a reason most forecasters describe this race as a toss up: it's because the race is quite close! Maybe you'd ever so slightly prefer Kamala, but it's not by much. We're probably talking a 55-45 split or 60-40 split in her favor. That's still basically a tossup.
I don't disagree with any of your arguments in favor of Kamala's campaign, I just don't come to the same conclusion. Yes: Kamala is liked more than Trump. Hillary Clinton was also liked more than Trump, that did not stop Trump from winning that election. Yes, Trump is running a horrible campaign (Donald Trump is a horrible candidate): this did not stop Trump from winning in 2016 AND nearly winning in 2020. Hillary Clinton also led all of the polls heading into 2016 too.
But more importantly, Kamala is NOT more liked than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were before Election Day in 2016 and 2020. Kamala's lead in the polls is NOT stronger than either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden's were in 2016 and 2020. In fact, both are smaller. Yes, Kamala is rebuilding the coalition that won Biden the White House in 2020: but Biden barely won in 2020. In short, while I could see the argument for the race tilting towards Kamala: there's a reason most forecasters describe this race as a toss up: it's because the race is quite close! Maybe you'd ever so slightly prefer Kamala, but it's not by much. We're probably talking a 55-45 split or 60-40 split in her favor. That's still basically a tossup.
What did Pitt do or say?