I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
If money is tight or you’re already up to eyeballs in subscriptions, here’s another idea — share this article. Email it to a friend (or even an enemy). Post it on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. Text or email it to your wife, husband, mother, father, brother, sister, or even your creepy second cousin who lives in the world of the Mole People. Word of mouth is often the best way to build support for a creative endeavor, so if everyone here sends it to just one person … it would be much appreciated.
Quick housekeeping note: there’s an outside chance that I can hold a Zoom chat tomorrow. It largely depends on a scheduling issue that is currently outside my control. I’ll let you know first thing in the morning. If it happens … usual time (12:30), usual place (on Zoom).
Harris In The Lead
There’s a recurrent refrain among political pundits these days that the 2024 presidential race is a toss-up.
I disagree. Here are a few reasons why.
1) Kamala Harris is a better candidate.
She is disciplined, capable of executing her political strategy, and well-liked by the electorate. Donald Trump is none of these things.
Take, for example, her favorability ratings.
I’ve harped on this quite a bit, but in an era of intense political polarization, it’s not necessarily the norm for a national political candidate to have a favorability rating above water (granted, right now, Harris is at even). But that isn’t what impresses me most about this graph. It’s the steady rise in Harris’s favorability since Biden’s disastrous debate performance. She’s gone from 16 points underwater to even.
That tells me two things. First, Harris is an engaging candidate who has rallied Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents behind her candidacy. Second, and perhaps more importantly, none of the attack lines unveiled by the Trump campaign have had much effect. Part of this is luck. Biden dropped out after the Republican National Convention, which means Republicans lost a four-day opportunity to cast Harris in a negative light. But, since then, it’s pretty clear that their attacks on Harris have not significantly undermined her favorability ratings. Trump had a chance to wound her at last week's presidential debate — but that didn’t happen. His campaign will run negative ads against her (that’s already happening), but I imagine those would be canceled out by her ads. Negative ads tend to move numbers when one candidate controls the battlefield. That’s not happening now and won’t happen between now and November. So here’s my question: How does Trump lower her favorabilities between now and Election Day? I don’t see it.
2) Donald Trump is running a lousy campaign, and people don’t like him.
Trump’s favorabilities are not awful … but notice the trend line. These are the favorability ratings of a high floor, low ceiling candidate.
But here’s what I find particularly striking about the Trump campaign. It’s bad.
Remember Sunday when there was a thwarted assassination attempt on Trump at a golf course in Florida? Maybe the most interesting question from that situation is, WHAT THE HELL IS DONALD TRUMP DOING ON A GOLF COURSE 7 WEEKS BEFORE A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Here’s another question: why the hell was he holding a rally on New York’s Long Island Tuesday night? New York is not in play.
Why is he posting on his Truth Social feed that he hates Taylor Swift, arguably the country's most famous and beloved celebrity?
Why is his vice presidential nominee, JD Vance, getting into Twitter fights with political pundits?
Why is the Trump-Vance doubling down on this false Haitian migrant pet-eating story?
Why is Vance floating the possibility of removing health care protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions?
What is the Trump-Vance strategy for winning over undecided voters?
One of my persistent beliefs about losing presidential campaigns is that they emit the distinct and disquieting odor of defeat. And right now, the Trump campaign stinks.
3) Virtually every presidential forecaster has Harris ahead
I am somewhat skeptical about election forecasting in general, but the data seems pretty clear—Harris has a slight advantage. (I’ve found it very hard to take Nate Silver seriously anymore, so take his forecast with a grain of salt.) I’m not sure this means all that much but if you had a choice, wouldn’t you rather be in Harris’s position than Trump’s?
4) Harris has multiple paths to the White House.
In the last few days, several polls have shown Harris taking a small lead in Pennsylvania, which arguably is the most important battleground state.
Of all the battlegrounds, Michigan is her best polling state right now. Wisconsin is second best (though her numbers there have dipped in the past few days). If she wins these two plus Pennsylvania and doesn’t lose any of the states Biden won in 2020 (and there’s no polling suggesting she will), she’s the next president of the United States.
Granted, her leads in these three states are well within the margin of error, but they do show a slight but persistent advantage. But let’s say she loses one of these states. According to FiveThirtyEight, she’s less than a point ahead in Nevada and less than a point behind in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. In other words, even if she loses one of the three Midwest battleground states, she could make up the difference in Arizona, North Carolina, or Georgia. For Trump, the road to 270 Electoral Votes is much more difficult. He doesn’t need to win all the battleground states, but he needs to win most of them. If current polling is any indication, he needs to make up ground in the Midwest even to have a chance at victory. Harris has far more margin for error.
5) Harris continues to crush with women and college-educated voters, particularly in key swing states.
The last part is crucial. Even if Harris has some slippage among Black and Hispanic men, it’s outweighed by her strong support among women voters and college-educated whites. This is basically what happened with Biden in 2020. I expect Harris’s numbers to improve with voters of color, and she will be in range of Biden’s 2020 performance. But if she continues to do well with white college-educated women (and men), she can lose some of that support and still emerge victorious on Election Day.
If you’re a regular reader of Truth and Consequences, you know I have a few well-argued beliefs about this campaign (and they predate Biden’s departure from the race). Donald Trump is a high-floor, low-ceiling candidate who voters, by and large, don’t like — and they have made up their minds about him. Trump is incapable of and unwilling to change his political messaging to appeal to voters outside of his MAGA base. Democrats have a growing edge with women and college-educated voters, as evident in multiple elections since 2018, which gives them a significant advantage in crucial swing states like PA, WI, MI, GA, and AZ. Democrats have the easier path to 270 electoral votes.
In key regards, this election is playing out in much the way I expected — even when Biden was on the ticket. With Biden out and his age and mental acuity no longer an issue, it’s that much harder for Republicans to win.
I’ll include the usual caveats that a lot can happen in the next seven weeks, and things could change if a major news event breaks between now and Election Day (I don’t know what that would be.) Maybe the polls are systematically wrong. Anything is possible. But I can say that if the race's current trajectory doesn’t change … Kamala Harris will likely be our next president.
It’s A Cult
Yesterday
Last October …
Just hours after Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) won the Republican Conference’s nomination to be House speaker on Tuesday, former President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to deride the congressman as “totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters” and a “Globalist RINO.”
He then got on the phone with members to express his aversion for Emmer and his bid for speaker.
By Tuesday afternoon Trump called one person close to him with the message, “He’s done. It’s over. I killed him.”
Just minutes later, Emmer officially dropped out of the race.
These people have no self-respect at all. It’s sad.
What’s Going On
What’s happening in the state of Ohio is a greater assault on democracy than anything Donald Trump has done in the past nine years.
Your semi-regular reminder that Donald Trump is a moron.
It’s almost as if House Republicans are going out of their way to ensure they lose their majority.
Brad Pitt … kind of a jerk.
Musical Interlude
How about some Cat Power today!
(Yes, I know I had the first song in the Musical Interlude earlier in the week, but I really love this song, and this is a lovely version).
I don't disagree with any of your arguments in favor of Kamala's campaign, I just don't come to the same conclusion. Yes: Kamala is liked more than Trump. Hillary Clinton was also liked more than Trump, that did not stop Trump from winning that election. Yes, Trump is running a horrible campaign (Donald Trump is a horrible candidate): this did not stop Trump from winning in 2016 AND nearly winning in 2020. Hillary Clinton also led all of the polls heading into 2016 too.
But more importantly, Kamala is NOT more liked than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were before Election Day in 2016 and 2020. Kamala's lead in the polls is NOT stronger than either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden's were in 2016 and 2020. In fact, both are smaller. Yes, Kamala is rebuilding the coalition that won Biden the White House in 2020: but Biden barely won in 2020. In short, while I could see the argument for the race tilting towards Kamala: there's a reason most forecasters describe this race as a toss up: it's because the race is quite close! Maybe you'd ever so slightly prefer Kamala, but it's not by much. We're probably talking a 55-45 split or 60-40 split in her favor. That's still basically a tossup.
What did Pitt do or say?