Trump Blinked ...

... and that's a good thing, for him and us.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

If money is tight or you’re already up to eyeballs in subscriptions, here’s another idea — share this article. Email it to a friend (or even an enemy). Post it on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. Text or email it to your wife, husband, mother, father, brother, sister, or even your creepy second cousin who lives in Windsor, Ontario. Word of mouth is often the best way to build support for a creative endeavor, so if everyone here sends it to just one person … it would be much appreciated.

Sometimes, an online meme is worth 1000 words.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is at the top, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is at the bottom. On Monday, both leaders spoke with President Trump. They reiterated offers already made to the US on tightening border security (with a few minor juicers thrown in by Trudeau, like appointing a “fentanyl czar”). And, lo and behold, Trump backed down from his tariff threats. (In fact, he actually granted a concession to Sheinbaum by agreeing to crack down on the flow of guns from the US into Mexico)

Trump only agreed to delay the tariffs for a month so we could be back here in early March. But for now, the crisis has been averted.

Trump engaged in destabilizing brinkmanship, sent markets into a tailspin, and upset relations with two key allies to get an outcome that both countries had largely committed themselves to (and likely would have done so if there had been no tariff threat) … but hey, sometimes you gotta break a few eggs to make an omelet.

I don’t mean to be overly flippant but this is an unambiguously good outcome. It’s good for the US, Mexico, and Canada. A trade war would have meant higher prices, lost jobs, and further frayed relations. It’s very good for the auto industry and individual consumers. While this might not be a popular view among some of you, it’s also a good political outcome for Trump.

It’s possible he saw the Dow drop 600 points Monday morning, had a Road to Damascus moment, and feverishly sought an exit ramp. Or maybe brinkmanship and retreat were his plan all along. Either way, he comes out of this situation in good political shape. He can say he got tough with Canada and Mexico, and both countries blinked. His supporters will eat that argument up with a spoon, and millions of others won’t look too closely at the details and realize that he got practically nothing in return for his tariff threat. Above all, he avoids putting in place crippling tariffs, which would have caused widespread economic pain. (For the rest of us, we can take some solace in the fact that even Trump can be reasoned with and, in isolated circumstances, take the correct and rational path).

As for future tariff threats, I agree with Fred Kaplan — Trump has shown the world a weak hand.

In retrospect, because Trump got so little in exchange for suspending the tariffs, the whole Sturm und Drang looks clearly like a bluff. So the next time he goes through the same rigmarole, nobody will take it seriously.

He is still warning that tariffs on the European Union are imminent. (He has described our trade deficit with the EU nations as an “atrocity.”) He has also threatened imposing tariffs on Denmark if it doesn’t sell him Greenland. The Europeans will respond in one of two ways. They will either bow courteously, call him “sir,” and promise to do things that they’re already doing, or, if some of them are in a flippant mood, they might issue counterthreats, knowing that Trump really doesn’t want to impose tariffs and therefore hoping that he backs down. (The Canadians did just that, and indeed it was Trump who backed down.)

But do you think Trump cares? He can go through the same rigamarole with the EU in a few weeks, back down at the last minute, claim victory, and, again, pay little domestic political price. His supporters think he can do no wrong and everyone else will be happy that prices aren’t going up. I said yesterday that Trump is an idiot — and I stand by that. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s stupid.

Or maybe the more straightforward explanation is that being a political cult leader has benefits.

One Other Thing

As if things weren’t going well enough for Trump, it looks like both RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard will be confirmed by the US Senate for, respectively, Secretary of Health and Human Services and Director of National Intelligence. Both are manifestly unqualified and will do enormous damage to America (and, in the case of RFK Jr., probably get lots of people killed). But again, Trump doesn’t care. Getting all his Cabinet picks confirmed (which seems increasingly likely) is a huge political win for him. It demonstrates, once again, his extraordinary dominance and control of the modern Republican Party.

Trump’s approval numbers may begin to erode, but for now, they are holding somewhat steady (though it’s worth noting that he is historically unpopular for a new president). If he had gone through with this tariff threat, I feel confident that his approval numbers would soon look much worse.

What’s Going On

• For MSNBC, I wrote about why Trump and Musk’s assault on USAID is so bad for US national security.

• The NYT’s reporting on Elon Musk’s takeover of key federal agencies is legitimately terrifying.

• Trump ordered the Army Corps of Engineers to release billions of gallons of water from two reservoirs in California's Central Valley … and that water will likely go wasted.

• The NYT expose on the New Orleans Saints doing crisis communications for the Catholic archdiocese in the city after accusations of sexual assault by priests is disturbing as hell.

Musical Interlude