Not only does the Florida governor lack the personality for a successful presidential run, but he's needlessly poked the GOP's biggest bear -- Donald Trump.
I completely disagree with this take on Trump losing in "a war of attrition" in the primary. This is exactly what every Republican thought in 2016, it's why it took so long for opposition to Trump to coalesce (and by that point Ted Cruz was the last man standing and nobody liked Cruz)m, and if this is the non-Trump GOP strategy to beat him in 2016 he will waltz to the nomination. This is not like other GOP primaries where many people claim the mantle of Trump (since nobody else can BE Trump) and thus a 'normie' Republican can win by others splitting the vote. The "not-Trump" vote is barely bigger than Trump, so they need to hang together.
I don't know if DeSantis is the best candidate to take on Trump for the nomination. What I DO suspect is that if someone is to dethrone Trump the rest of the party needs to coalesce around that candidate before the primaries so they can make it a "Trump/not-Trump" choice, in which case "not-Trump" can win. Pence is not going to be the guy; he's too damaged and old school. Ted Cruz is an unlikable hack, and Larry Hogan's slice of the party is too small. All of which leaves DeSantis as the likely option.
Well to be clear I think Trump likely wins outright, but that if he loses it will more likely be from a war of attrition than a full bore campaign between him and DeSantis.
And I don't think the party is capable of coalescing around a single candidate -- see 2016!
I guess I am not entirely sure, then, what "a war of attrition" looks like, and regardless the GOP will still need a candidate to coalesce around. Trump isn't going to go away until he either dies or he's locked up. Neither appears likely between now and 2024, so a DeSantis type figure will be required even with said war of attrition.
We shall see if the GOP is incapable of coalescing around an alternative. Nobody looks particularly strong outside of DeSantis. Pence may be better off waiting until 2028 (especially if Biden wins a 2nd term), Cruz/Rubio/Scott all look far less compelling than DeSantis, Hogan's slice of the party is too small. That means the GOP needs a figure from the Trumpets wing of the party to turn traitor and get the non-Trumpist wing(s) of the party to accept him.
What a war of attrition looks like is Mehmet Oz and David McCormick going mano-a-mano, and Oz emerging as a winner because of a group of zealous Trump voters, but without money or the crossover appeal to win a general. Or being JD Vance, and emerging from a bruising primary $700K in debt, and without learnign to speak about policy. I wrote about that here: https://clairepotter.substack.com/p/yes-the-democrats-can-still-win-in
I admire your optimism but I find the odds democrats pick up seats in the House at slim to none.
The Senate is dynamic but it’s dynamic because the nature of thermostatic elections matter less in statewide races. Republicans picked up two seats in the senate in 2018 despite getting clobbered in the House. The GOP LOST three seats in the Senate and the presidency but won back seats in the House in 2020.
Democrats have a good map and the GOP is shooting itself in the foot picking Vance, Oz and Walker. That doesn’t mean Dems will win of course but suggests they can retain the senate if Biden’s approval picks up a touch and republicans keep making poor choices
I completely disagree with this take on Trump losing in "a war of attrition" in the primary. This is exactly what every Republican thought in 2016, it's why it took so long for opposition to Trump to coalesce (and by that point Ted Cruz was the last man standing and nobody liked Cruz)m, and if this is the non-Trump GOP strategy to beat him in 2016 he will waltz to the nomination. This is not like other GOP primaries where many people claim the mantle of Trump (since nobody else can BE Trump) and thus a 'normie' Republican can win by others splitting the vote. The "not-Trump" vote is barely bigger than Trump, so they need to hang together.
I don't know if DeSantis is the best candidate to take on Trump for the nomination. What I DO suspect is that if someone is to dethrone Trump the rest of the party needs to coalesce around that candidate before the primaries so they can make it a "Trump/not-Trump" choice, in which case "not-Trump" can win. Pence is not going to be the guy; he's too damaged and old school. Ted Cruz is an unlikable hack, and Larry Hogan's slice of the party is too small. All of which leaves DeSantis as the likely option.
Maybe someone else emerges: I doubt it
Well to be clear I think Trump likely wins outright, but that if he loses it will more likely be from a war of attrition than a full bore campaign between him and DeSantis.
And I don't think the party is capable of coalescing around a single candidate -- see 2016!
I guess I am not entirely sure, then, what "a war of attrition" looks like, and regardless the GOP will still need a candidate to coalesce around. Trump isn't going to go away until he either dies or he's locked up. Neither appears likely between now and 2024, so a DeSantis type figure will be required even with said war of attrition.
We shall see if the GOP is incapable of coalescing around an alternative. Nobody looks particularly strong outside of DeSantis. Pence may be better off waiting until 2028 (especially if Biden wins a 2nd term), Cruz/Rubio/Scott all look far less compelling than DeSantis, Hogan's slice of the party is too small. That means the GOP needs a figure from the Trumpets wing of the party to turn traitor and get the non-Trumpist wing(s) of the party to accept him.
Who else can do that besides DeSantis?
What a war of attrition looks like is Mehmet Oz and David McCormick going mano-a-mano, and Oz emerging as a winner because of a group of zealous Trump voters, but without money or the crossover appeal to win a general. Or being JD Vance, and emerging from a bruising primary $700K in debt, and without learnign to speak about policy. I wrote about that here: https://clairepotter.substack.com/p/yes-the-democrats-can-still-win-in
I admire your optimism but I find the odds democrats pick up seats in the House at slim to none.
The Senate is dynamic but it’s dynamic because the nature of thermostatic elections matter less in statewide races. Republicans picked up two seats in the senate in 2018 despite getting clobbered in the House. The GOP LOST three seats in the Senate and the presidency but won back seats in the House in 2020.
Democrats have a good map and the GOP is shooting itself in the foot picking Vance, Oz and Walker. That doesn’t mean Dems will win of course but suggests they can retain the senate if Biden’s approval picks up a touch and republicans keep making poor choices